Football is one of the few sports that has extreme parity. Year after year there is a team that catches the league, fans, and the media storm. However, only two times in NFL history where a team’s odds were below (+5000) and won the Super Bowl. The first time was in 1999 as the St. Louis Rams won the world championship with and The New England Patriots in 2001 with +15000 odds.
The Los Angeles Chargers have all the pieces this year to win a championship. Right now, they have the 15th best odds at +3300. As you look around the NFL, the Chargers have one of the best top to bottom rosters. NFL General Managers and scouts grade players from an ‘A to F’ scale, and the new LA franchise has more ‘A and B rated’ players than the majority of teams in the league.
Tom Telesco and staff struck gold last year when they selected Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick. Herbert went on to have a historic rookie season and broke four NFL records. Including most passing TDs by a rookie quarterback, most total TDs by a rookie quarterback, most 300-yard games by a rookie, and most completions by a rookie. Going into this season, former all-pro safety Derwin James is healthy after missing two seasons due to injury is ready to return to form. “Derwin is a little different because he’s one of those guys, sort of like [Rams DT] Aaron Donald where it almost doesn’t matter what position he plays. … His status among the upper-echelon of defensive players is entrenched even though the sample size is so small because he’s so dynamic and disruptive.” NFL Insider Ian Rapoport said.
The Chargers had a solid off-season by bringing in first-team All-Pro offensive lineman Corey Linsley, former Saints tight-end Jared Cook, and several guys that will make big contributions this year. Including Bryan Bulaga, Linval Joseph, Christian Covington, Matt Feiler, and Kyler Fackrell, and Oday Aboushi. Seven of the eight guys played over 43 percent of their previous team’s snaps. Prior to last year, Bulaga played over 83 percent of his snaps in 2019.
In 2020, the Chargers were top 10 in passing yards per game, third-down percentage, and total yards without their star running back Austin Ekeler who missed six games with a hamstring injury. As for the defense, the bolts ranked 25th in the NFL in passer rating on deep passes. By drafting Asante Samuel Jr who forced 30 incompletions (Tied for the second most amongst cornerbacks since 2018) and bringing in their new HC Brandon Staley who had the Rams 1st in the league in that category, they look to be on pace to improve in that area.
In previous years the Chargers’ biggest issue was finishing games. Over the past two season’s they have lost 16 games by eight points or less. Staley helped guide the Rams defense in 2020 to lead the NFL in pass defense, total defense, and scoring defense. Bringing in the first-time head coach brings in a fresh face that comes from a winning culture that will keep his young team poised in crunch time.
Assuming LA doesn’t have any major injuries, and their rookies/incoming free-agents mesh, they will be a playoff team. The back half of their schedule is very favorable, and I could see after their Week 7 bye, I could see them only losing two to three games. Not to mention the NFL added an extra playoff team that helps their chances despite being in the same division as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Every year there is a new team that makes the playoffs that didn’t the year before, this is the year for the Chargers to make some noise.
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