SR – Playoff Preview: The Eastern Conference Finals

Six weeks. Seven days. That’s how long the Lake Buena Vista bubble in Orlando Florida has been inflated, and since the July 30th restart date, and while sports media personalities have bloviated and broken down all major and minor happenings both on and off the court, we’ve been blessed with some awesome basketball in this restart.

On another note, it’s fortunate that all players have been able to stay safe and COVID-19-free during the abridged resumption, and additionally, having players take such stoic stances on social justice issues with strength and steadfastness helped to move the conversation about civic justice to the forefront. This bubble has been a huge success, and it’s weird to think it’s almost all over.

Now back onto the topic of basketball: The playoffs have resembled nothing like how fans and T.V. personalities predicted prior to its beginnings.

Specifically in the East, seeing the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks who carried the league’s best record fall in the second round to the fifth-seeded Miami Heat was definitely not on a lot of peoples’ 2020 bingo card. And after that, the defending champion Toronto Raptors found themselves in a tight series against seasonal superior Boston that went the distance, as they went on to go down in seven.

Wild.

Now, game two of this physical showdown between two of the Eastern Conference’s remaining factions will take place tonight, live on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET.

Miami looks to assert themselves as the Alpha competitors after knocking off the top seed in the Eastern playoffs behind the suffocating defensive schemes put forth by head coach Erik Spoelstra, the spectacular two-way play of Jimmy Butler, and these sharpshooting wings Miami rolls out.

Conversely, Boston will have something to say about that, for their ability to match physicality with length is equally unmatched, and with the mountainous rise of Jayson Tatum’s superstar status mixed with the other two pure isolation scorers, this conference finals that is purely matchup-based will provide fireworks in more ways than just on the court.

There are some subtle storylines that have been in the making for a couple of years now, even dating back to 2012 when the LeBron James-Dwayne Wade-Chris Bosh-led Miami Heat and Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce-Rajon Rondo-Ray Allen-led Boston Celtics went to war, but until we get to those, let’s get into the breakdowns for the final teams standing in the East.

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3. Boston Celtics (48-24, 3rd in East, Won First Round vs. PHI 4-0, Won ECSF 4-3) – We are going to have new NBA champions and new champs coming out of the East since the Boston Celtics eliminated any chance of title retention for Toronto after overcoming them in seven during the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

In the previous series, Boston started out in startling fashion, smacking the Raptors by 18 in a Game 1 blowout. Boston’s length and adeptness at scoring in the halfcourt transferred from their first-round series against Philly. Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker were unstoppable, and that narrative carried into game two with the Celtics fending off the resilient title holders, winning by seven to take a 2-0 series lead with Gordon Hayward’s starting lineup replacement in Marcus Smart nearly scoring 16 straight points in the second game’s fourth quarter.

What seemed to be a steamrolling and impending 3-0 lead turned into a momentum-altered reshuffling, with Toronto’s OG Anunoby splashing a wide-open three-ball in the opposite corner from a side-out heave with a half-second remaining on the clock. Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker would subsequently struggle in a momentum shift of a Game 3, as Toronto tied the series at 2 apiece.

Anxieties arose, and it looked as if the Box-And-1/5 Triangle And 2 zones had Boston confounded and on the ropes. Those nerves got extinguished in Game 5, as Boston put on a show similar to their Game 1 outing where they trounced Toronto again, now with the confidence heading into their first chance at eliminating the champs.

But to do that, it took four quarters, two overtimes, late-game mishaps, and a decisive Game 7 to make that happen. Tatum answered the call when both his counterparts in Walker and Brown struggled and did what superstars do: drop 29-12-7, lock up on the other end, and honor his idol, Kobe Bryant, by breaking his record of being the youngest player in postseason history to put up a stat-line of 25p-10r-5ast at the age of 22.

Boston earned the right to be in the conference finals, so now it comes down to executing in what should be an enjoyable series against a rival that’s been a thorn in Boston’s side for the past decade.

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5. Miami Heat (44-29, 5th in East, Won First Round vs. IND 4-0, Won ECSF vs. MIL 4-1) – It was rational to consider the Miami Heat to be ions away from the Conference Finals picture at the season’s beginning back in October last year, let alone them dethroning the Milwaukee Bucks and ending their historic season.

A season that, albeit ended quite abruptly, included a bevy of awards to their two stars in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, (Giannis is the likely favorite to repeat as MVP, and Khris Middleton became an All-Star for the second straight year) and head coach Mike Budenholzer (coaches poll co-winner for Coach of the Year with ex-Thunder coach Billy Donovan).

But looking at this year, it was difficult to truly visualize any other outcome than Miami moving on to the conference finals. When it comes to the playoffs, every coach and player has an idea of what offense a team will attempt to run through their best players, so for Miami, who already had Giannis’ number in the regular season, showed the collective basketball universe they weren’t to be taken lightly.  Remember when we said Bam Adebayo was the best defender against Antetokounmpo in the entire league this season?  

We weren’t kidding.

Miami proved that they had the recipe to cut the head from the snake against the reigning MVP and take him away from his game. That, promptly, took the Bucks out of the equation for the three games they won against the Bucks with Antetokounmpo on the floor. And it wasn’t just Bam sticking onto the Greek Freak like glue – Miami actively switched Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler, and the off-the-bench Andre Iguodala onto him. In the first three games, they beat Milwaukee with Antetokounmpo on the floor.

But in Game 4, things went from bad to horrid, as their transcendent star went down, clutching his ankle he injured during the third game of the series. He didn’t return and although Khris Middleton’s heroics kept the Bucks in the Disney resort for another few nights, they would go down in five, all because of the air-tight defense played by Miami’s combination of starters and role players, and knock-down shooting from the likes of Goran Dragic, rookie Tyler Herro, and wings Jae Crowder and Kelly Olynyk.

These Heat are serious about making it back to the finals for the first time since 2014, and their identity of grit, effort, and attention to detail got them within the thick of things to win their franchise’s fourth title. Boston stands in their way and though they’ve lost the season series to Boston two games to one, these new-look Heat aren’t messing around.

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Eastern Conference Finals: No. 3 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Miami Heat

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) shoots against Miami Heat forward Jae Crowder (99) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (Kim Klement/Pool Photo via AP)

It’s rather redundant to reiterate how matchup-enamored this duel between two elite defensive squads is, and as unexpected as this seven-game series will be, this is the first time in NBA history that the two teams in the East playing in the conference finals won’t be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. But that’s pretty on-brand for this 2019-20 season (and 2020 altogether): nothing is as scripted or going along with the schedule.

As it goes for both teams as previously mentioned, Boston went 2-1 against the Heat this season, with Miami’s lone win against the Celtics coming in the Bubble without Jimmy Butler. There has been time to adjust and formulate a gameplan for both teams, and on Tuesday and Thursday night, the time to put away the study guides will be upon both franchises.

In Boston’s prior series against Toronto, there wasn’t any argument as to who the Celtics’ best player was in the series. Jayson Tatum’s rise to superstardom isn’t quite finished yet, but it’s really ascending rather quickly. Averaging 24.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5 assists in the seven-game series, and his wing accomplice Jaylen Brown (20.7 ppg.) was instrumental on the defensive end in locking down Raps superstar and Most Improved Player Pascal Siakam.

Kemba Walker (17 ppg.) didn’t have the ideal series to help propel the Celtics to the ECF but was big in making clutch plays against Toronto’s switching efforts late in Games 2, 3, and 7.  As a team, Boston averaged 107.6 points per game in the past two series they’ve played – the worst offensive output of all the remaining teams inside the bubble. As a team, they shot 44.8 percent from the field and 34.6 percent from the three, which is rather an impressive feat considering the fact that Toronto was that tedious to score on as the best defensive team in the East.

They’ll hope those numbers improve at some point in this series since they’ll need all the offense they can manage to push onto the floor. Though his condition is improving, Gordon Hayward’s return is still up in the air. Averting from his averaged 17.5 points per game and his role as an extra piece to Boston’s offensive auxiliary for a second, he’s a dually-gifted wing defender that’s good at taking the three-ball away as well as limiting dribble penetration attempts from guards.

His absence hasn’t nullified Boston completely, however. Through two rounds and a whole playoff series without Hayward in the second round, Boston has allowed opponents to only score 100 points per contest, meaning they’re the best remaining defensive team in the bubble. In five of the seven games against second-seeded Toronto, they held Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and others under 100 points.

Regardless of the positive attributes thrown Boston’s way, Miami will have a bunch to counter-argument that notion.

A lot of people who predicted the Bucks to fall to the Heat in the second round have to be patting themselves on the back right now. They were right. Star power and regality doesn’t mean anything if your best player and MVP candidate can’t find a way to individually beat his matchups and get his numbers, and conversely, a supporting cast that isn’t hitting their shots and playing that tight defense they’ve played all year as the best team in the NBA doesn’t help the cause.

Miami absolutely gave zero room or time for the Bucks to adjust, or gain a sliver of confidence in the series, with a “Gentleman’s Sweep” in the second round winning 3-1 and advancing to the Conference finals for the first time in six years. Led by their fiery leader Jimmy Butler, these blue-collar Heat aren’t in the Conference Finals by coincidence, like it’s some Cinderella Story that’s clock hasn’t struck midnight.

This team is built to win and win now. Butler looked as if he got over last year’s semifinal loss to Toronto as a member of the 76ers, and promptly stuck it to the Bucks. Putting up crazy scoring numbers of 23.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals, not backing down an inch from the grandiose of the top-seeded Bucks.

Alongside him was the spectacular two-way effort of rising star Bam Adebayo, who kept Antetokounmpo under wraps the entire series. Averaging a double-double of 17 points and 12 rebounds, he also contributed in sharing the rock, compiling a little over six assists per game.

High screen and roll actions that draw bigs out onto the perimeter stretch the floor and create mismatches down low, and allow Bam to pitch the ball into the mid or low post where guards will be attached to one of Miami’s taller wing shooters. They did it all in their last series against Milwaukee, and they’ll stick to their guns in this series to generate mismatches under the basket.

As for their guards, Goran Dragic will look to attack Kemba Walker in Pick and Roll sets and be the focal point of ball movement for the Miami Heat to enact their offense. Dragic has been an efficient scorer with the ball in his hands, but has been huge in not having a tunnel vision to create offense for others by cutting and setting key off-ball screens that free up shooters on the wings. He’ll be instrumental in controlling the tempo of the floor, and Boston will have to really have to work hard to get physical with him and get him out of rhythm early.

The unstoppable force that is Erik Spoelstra’s on-the-fly adjustments, Miami’s hard-nosed defensive identity, mental toughness, efficient outside shooting and acquired confidence from the likes of other pieces in Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson, rookie Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk and so many more meets the immovable object that is Boston’s equally tough defense, talented wing scoring from the future superstar duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, gritty effort from Marcus Smart, volume scoring of Kemba Walker and Boston’s battle-tested attitude.

Another additional narrative that makes this duel of a series that much more intriguing: former Celtics Kelly Olynyk and Jae Crowder are looking for revenge against the teams that traded them away to help create the Boston team that they are playing against.

This is as far as the 2017 Celtics went with Crowder and Olynyk, who, alongside Isaiah Thomas, helped propel the Celtics over the then-threatening Washington Wizards in seven to advance to the Conference Finals, where they would lose in five to LeBron and Kyrie Irving’s Cavaliers. Whether the two former Boston draft picks head home or advance to their first Finals is incumbent on their role of being integral 3-and-D men in locking down former teammates in Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, as well as Jayson Tatum, a guy they never got a chance to play with as he was drafted third overall one year later.

This series is going to be another dogfight, and surely it’ll go the distance. There isn’t much of a claim to refute that. DraftKings thinks this series will belong to the Miami Heat, since they are -162 point favorites to advance to the Conference Finals. And with the momentum they have, very few teams are as balanced and hungry as these Miami Heat. Whoever wins this series will win by simply wanting it more; that means whoever cuts harder, drives harder, locks up harder, and whoever plays with more fire will end up winning it.

And just by the eye-test alone, Miami could pass that with flying colors.

Prediction: MIA wins series 4-3, advances to NBA Finals.