SR – NBA Bubble Breakdowns: #21 Washington Wizards

And…we are back with another edition of the Bubble Breakdowns! Last night, it might make a little more sense to move the Brooklyn Nets a little higher on this countdown, simply because of the shocking acquisitions that Nets GM Sean Marks was able to pull off in signing veteran shooting guard and handle GAWD Jamal Crawford, as well as former 1st rounder Michael Beasley. Brooklyn needed to pull off some last-minute substitutions as a result of the five players they’ll be without during the time they restart their season in Orlando in a couple of weeks, and by the looks of it, Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn now has some new benefits in the rebounding and frontcourt scoring departments.

On this Thursday, you could say that the position of this next team on our list is, quite honestly, interchangeable with some of the bottom-tier squads in the teams most likely to compete for a chance to play in the play-in tournaments for the lower seeds.

The players who decided not to play for the Nets was bad enough to the chances of Brooklyn keeping that seventh seed in the East, but in terms of opt-outs and no-gos on the Wizards’ end, Washington got rocked. badly. Both all-around two-guard Bradley Beal and sharpshooter Davis Bertans said no to playing in Orlando. Davis Bertans, for the fear of catching COVID-19, willfully opted out of participating in the Orlando games, while Beal plans to tend to a lingering shoulder injury he hopes to have healed by next season.

As it stands, Washington fans have little to wonder about who can step up to take the presumptive role of floor general for a team that’s relatively within reach of touching the eighth and final playoff seed.

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Washington’s Season In Review (24-40, 9th in East)

There’s no sugarcoating it: for just about the entire duration of the 2019-2020 season, the Washington Wizards have been the most defensively inefficient team in the NBA. You could literally count on a hand the number of times that Washington’s held their opponents to under 100 points (four times actually) and can do the same when you count up the times they’ve let opponents score 150+ points in a game, most notably in that silly, video-game-like thriller between them and the Houston Rockets that saw the Wizards lose 159-158 back in October.

But ironically, they’ve been a top-15 offense in the league (13th best offensive rating in the NBA), mainly due to the help of a certain superstar at the shooting guard position that could score whatever way you needed him to. As the ninth seed for this competition, Washington only needs four games to qualify for that play-in tournament that’ll likely feature both Brooklyn and eighth-seeded Orlando, assuming that the eight-game schedule for all three teams prompts a duel for the final spot in the postseason.

But, It’s still profound no matter how many times you say it aloud: the Washington Wizards are still alive in the playoff hunt, now only six games back of the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic. I’m sure the collective NBA Fan Base all went ‘HUH?!?!?’ when the 24-win Wizards were announced as one of the 22 teams scheduled to pack their bags and head down south to Walt Disney World when NBA Commissioner Adam Silver announced that the season was back on. But here they are.

So, in looking at this season, you could say that it definitely was somewhat of a step, more like a tread or meander, in an appropriate direction. This year was supposed to be a time for Bradley Beal to test out his leadership skills amidst a blend of youthful, impressionable rotational pieces and proven vets, deflect and deny any skepticisms about him seeking other green pastures and free-agent destinations, and help first-year Wizards General Manager Tommy Shepherd cultivate a drama-free culture and landscape that’ll eventually reintegrate John Wall back into the picture (who, by the way, hasn’t set foot on an NBA court since December 26, 2018) for Washington’s title window to slowly reopen in future campaigns.

And for the most part, the Wizards have done just that. This team could’ve been in a way worse scenario had the early cursors of the season caught up to them but they were able to wade through a chunk of adversity in order to supplant themselves as a prospective team that has a serious shot at a playoff spot, especially when you assess both the Magic and Nets’ tedious eight-game schedule.

Washington’s core of player development deserves some praise, too, especially head coach Scott Brooks for the way he’s corroborated a sense of confidence towards young pieces like two-way talent and former 1st rounder out of Gonzaga Rui Hachimura, energetic big man Thomas Bryant, and former Laker Moritz Wagner. Moreover, in addition to assisting in their development, the way that he threw all of his chips on the table in allowing the likes of Bertans and Beal to be the leaders on a roster that otherwise without their talents would easily be a lottery pick-caliber squad.

On the topic of a certain rookie in Rui Hachimura, he’s gone above and beyond rudimentary expectations usually stapled to rooks on talent-inept rosters in 2019-20. Pro comparisons for Hachimura’s draft profile ranged from Kawhi Leonard to another international prospect, but the Japanese-born prospect has answered the call for a team that’s still adapting to the two-way stretch forward trend so popular among title-contending organizations. Averaging a respectable 13.4 points and 6 rebounds per game, Hachimura has fit like a glove, endearing himself to veterans who appreciate his adamant demeanor and focus.

Some key moments throughout the year for Washington, and specifically for Bradley Beal, you ask? Well, take your pick. There was that time that the former Florida Gator who, after being snubbed as an All-Star, honored his favorite player growing up, Kobe Bryant, by coincidentally becoming the first player in the league since Bryant in March 2007 to score 50-plus points on consecutive days (Beal scored 53 in a loss to Chicago, and then dropped 56 against Milwaukee in an OT loss one game later). Or how about that game where he laid in a game-winning two-footer in a drawn-up sideout set to knock off the Dallas Mavericks back on February 7?

And as a team, there wasn’t much more memorable of a stretch than their back-to-back Ws over two playoff teams in both Denver and Boston back in January. Up until that point, they only had two slews of back-to-back wins this season in general.

It’s no secret he’s been their runaway MVP this season and has drawn eyes to himself and his Wizards from fans and media personalities alike, considering that had it not been for James Harden essentially being the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to average almost 40 points per game (34.5 ppg.), he’d probably be on his way to nabbing his first scoring title with his averaged 30 points per contest.

But perhaps the most meaningful occurrence for the Wizards this season: Bradley Beal voicing his security with the team he’s on by signing a 2-year, $72 Million max extension in October. By doing that back at the beginning of a new season, he further confirmed the belief that he had regarding the still-existent potential that he believes the tandem of John Wall and himself have, along with the young, playmaking core that Washington has, to shake things up in the East once everyone gets healthy starting next season.

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Washington’s Roster For Season Resumption: No Bradley Beal/Davis Bertans = An Even Slimmer Chance.

I’m going to try and be as euphemistic as possible when I say this: Washington’s chances of competing for that playoff spot “exist.” They’re not high, at the slightest, but they’re still there. Looking at this lineup, Scott Brooks won’t have the offensive luxury of relying on Bradley Beal’s gifted shot-creating and shot-making dynamic to the offense that Brooks runs, Nor will he have the freedom to run his esteemed drive-kick sets for Davis Bertans. So now, other guards like Ish Smith, (10.5 ppg., 4.8 apg.) Shabazz Napier (12.0 ppg, 4.4 apg.) and new Wizard Jerome Robinson (6.1 ppg., 3.5 apg.) are likely to all split minutes in place of Bradley Beal.

Though it’s highly unlikely they match the 30 points per game Beal usually scores for Washington.

Additional backcourt members like Isaac Bonga (4.6 ppg., 3.2 rpg.), Gary Payton II (3.9 ppg., 2.8 rpg.) will mainly be relied upon up their ability to make shooters uncomfortable around the perimeter, as well as be trusted to knock down shots from deep on the offensive end.

Payton, similar to his dad, is pound-for-pound the best perimeter defender on this roster as it stands now, and Bonga, up until the season went on hiatus, was making 40 percent of his shots from deep and 50 percent of his shots from the field.

Two-way talent Garrison Matthews (5.4 ppg., 1.2 rpg.) could be a name to look out for, as he shot 42.9 percent from downtown this season and could be an integral piece of offense that could help to propel the Wizards to a playoff seed.

Expect bigs Ian Mahinmi and Thomas to split minutes at the five. Mahinmi is averaging 16.3 points and 12.6 rebounds per 36 minutes played, which is decent, but his defensive effort is one of the reasons as to why Washington’s been horrendous on that side of the ball. His defensive rating is at 112.6 – ironically, the best among all frontcourt players on the team – and they don’t really have much else to put out there. Conversely, his frontcourt cohort Bryant is arguably the best three-point shooter on the team at his position.

Averaging 12.1 points and 6.8 rebounds per contest, he may not be as sound on the defensive end in contrast to his other teammates but he made over 40 percent of his deep balls this year and it’ll be interesting to see just how many minutes the Indiana-made Power Forward gets per game during this resumed season.

Moritz Wagner looks to be the best bet to be Davis Bertans’ replacement in Orlando. Bertans, who finished third in the Three-Point Contest during All-Star Weekend in February, made over 42.4 percent of his attempts from deep while averaging a little over 15 points. It’ll be a little above Wagner’s paygrade to match the level of productivity from one of the league’s most efficient marksmen, but Wagner, who made around 34 percent of his deep balls this season, will be asked to contribute a lot more minutes within a rotation that’ll probably go 12-13 players deep once the season comes around.

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Washington’s Schedule, At A Glance

Washington comes into Orlando having the ninth hardest schedule of the 22 remaining teams. Which doesn’t help, because their two most productive players opted out of performing in Orlando due to steering clear of catching the coronavirus. As the schedule goes for the Wizards, it’ll look a little like this:

Given the bare bones of what the Wizards have left of a competitive roster, it’ll be a difficult task for them to squeak out more than four wins in this eight-game schedule. After four scrimmage games, they’ll play another team that’s trying to will itself into the playoff picture out West in the Phoenix Suns. NBA fans won’t get to experience the treat that would have been the battle of the All-Star Snubs – Bradley Beal against Devin Booker (yes, I know, DBook was an all-star, but technically he wasn’t voted in and only got on the Western roster due to Damian Lillard getting hurt before All-Star Weekend) – but it can potentially be a competitive, high-scoring affair for both teams.

After that, they have a date with Brooklyn, a team that like them is undermanned, and a team they are trying to catch to force a play-in tournament.  Their schedule then ramps up in difficulty with a battle against Victor Oladipo-less Indiana Pacers team and then a duel with a tall, lanky Sixers team that’s sure to improve their stock before the playoffs roll through.

A game against the Phenom himself Zion Williamson and his New Orleans Pelicans await at the start of the season’s second half, and two days after that, they have to play a surprisingly dangerous Oklahoma City Thunder team that’s sure to wreak havoc among defenses everywhere. They’ll finish off their Orlando regular season playing two Eastern elites, the first being the #1 seeded Milwaukee Bucks with current MVP and leading candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the last being the #3 seeded Boston Celtics with rising superstars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Just like Brooklyn, this roster has been tethered and tattered by trade deadline decisions and abrupt opt-outs that all but certainly deflate any real hopes of seriously contending for a playoff spot this year. Yet, it’s unconfirmed just what level of intensity that the ninth-seeded Wizards are bringing into the NBA Bubble. Getting Washington back to the postseason for what’s been a drought of two seasons won’t be easy, or likely to be accomplished given the team that Scott Brooks has to coach and lead through the abridged season.

If there is confirmation of some sorts, Washington fans should feel some sense of pride and comfort knowing that things are only going to get better. For a team that’s so stout on grooming its younger pieces like Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant to eventually join forces with the currently rehabilitating duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal, GM Tommy Shepherd has to love the straightforward direction that DC’s team is headed toward.