SR – NBA Bubble Breakdowns: #12 Dallas Mavericks

After looking at the middle of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, today we shift to look at the middle of the Western conference to the 7th place Dallas Mavericks. A team headlined by the superstars of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis has a chance to really make some noise in the bubble. The middle of the Western Conference that includes the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Houston Rockets, at the 5 and 6 seeds also have reached 40 wins this year. The Mavericks at 40-27 are 3 games behind the 5/6 seed and have a legitimate chance at competing for that 5 seed if they show that they are the best of those three teams when the season resumes in a mere 12 days. The Mavs will need to step up and finish out the rest of the regular season getting considerably more production from their guys off the bench and by their best players acting accordingly. For Dallas to be competitive going into the playoffs they will have to finish the regular season as at least over .500 in the last 8 games and show more proof that they can be a real contender in the western conference playoff picture.

Dallas’ Season In Review (40-27, 7th In West)

It’s no secret this team will go as far as their 20-year-old European star will take them. Luka is averaging 28.7 points, 8.8 assists, and 9.5 rebounds a game this year. His stats suggest he is one of the leagues best point guards and that he’s not only capable of putting up big numbers scoring every night but, also in setting the table for his teammates. The dynamic young stud was coming off some really impressive scoring performances before the season was suspended. Luka had 36, 38, 38, and 28 points in the team’s last 4 games before the seasons halt. He can really fill it up but the most impressive part of his game isn’t just his ability to score or how easily he makes it seem to get a triple-double. With Doncic at the point, the Dallas Mavericks have posted the best offensive efficiency in NBA history this year. Yes even better than the 73-9 Warriors or the ’96-97 Bulls, this team has had a swagger on the offensive end of the ball this year that is unmatched. The Mav’s offensive weapons complement each other well and it helps that they have the swiss army knife that is Doncic, which can help in whatever way the team needs.

Porzingis has been solid this season averaging 19.2 points per game and 9.5 rebounds. He’s established his presence for his squad this season but, has yet to establish some type of dominance. He’s a 7-footer that has not been outshining opponents with his back to the basket this year. Now, this might be because the Mavs have found other ways to be the most efficient offense in the NBA but, now they will be without some of those pieces. PF/C Dwight Powell who was averaging a helpful 10.6 points and 6.5 rebounds a game this year for the Mavs suffered a season-ending Achilles injury that will keep him from the Orlando restart but he is with the team. Willey Cauley Stien, another one of the frontcourt pieces will also be out due to concerns over the COVID-19 virus (completely understandable). Cauley Stien although averaging only 7.2 points and 6 rebounds per game, is one of those players you know they didn’t sign for the regular season. Willie “Trill” was going to have more of an impact come playoffs defending the bigger lineups in the Western Conference but unfortunately, yet understandably, this will not be the case for the Mavs.

Dallas was getting some of the best production from G Tim Hardaway Jr. this year. The very capable scorer was averaging 21.5 points per game in the team’s last 10 games and my man was shooting an impressive 41%  from 3. If he can keep up his high volume yet efficient shooting to go along with the Sharpshooting that both Doncic and Seth Curry have been exhibiting this year the team might be able to still succeed without some of their key pieces. Dorian Finney-Smith is another wing that the Mavs will also look to increase production. One of the most notable parts of Finney-Smiths game is the fact that my man shoots 43.4 % on corner 3’s this year which is 5% higher than the rest of the league.

(Tom Fox / Staff Photographer)

For much of the season, this team has found a way to get it done offensively with a variety of different lineups. They have a lot of selfless guys and willing passers, so regardless of who they put out there they have a chance to light up opponents with their sharpshooting and you know if Luka decides he’s going for 50. But, the challenge for Coach Rick Carlisle’s squad is not offensively really but on defensively. Even if the Mavs are able to pick up right where they left off offensively and score the ball like crazy they are going to have to find a way to stop opposing bigs with a limited frontcourt and in transition.

Looking Into the Bubble:

When you look at the Mavericks projected starting 5 of Luka Doncic, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr, Dorian Finney Smith, and Kristaps Porzingas, the first question is who is going to guard opposing power forwards? But, when you look in-depth guys on their roster Like Dorian Finney-Smith, Justin Jackson and Delon Wright have actually made it tough for bigger guards and forwards when called upon to guard them this season. Finney Smith has actually held opposing power forwards to shooting about 30% from three this year (which ranks best of the players on this roster capable of guarding the 4). It’s also important to note that this team does have the support of Boban Bagdonavic off the bench when this team does face true centers in the west so Porzigas can go back to guarding the power forward which he’s guarded more this season.

Although this team will definitely have to step it up on defense I don’t believe that they will ever be able to rely on their defense to win games. This team is explosive on the offensive end, they score in bunches the way they win games is by capitalizing off the droughts of their opponents and exploiting mismatches and hot hands. This will be more of the same in the bubble where they will have to set the tone offensively so that they can cover up for their voids on defense. Unlike most of the teams in the league, the Mavs want to get into high scoring games with opponents because they have many guys capable of putting up big numbers or getting hot on offense, they will have to rely heavily upon that in Orlando.

The Dallas Mavericks take on the Houston Rockets on July 31st and although it will be the first game of the restart this game carries more weight than advertised to me because this game is between two teams witch the same amount of wins fighting for essentially the 5th seed in the West. Both teams will be playing relatively small and adjusted lineups but I believe the winner of this game will have a major momentum boost to finish out the remainder of the regular season. This momentum boost could mean a lot depending on how the western conference does pan out for the playoffs so if the mavericks can get clicking offensively before the Rockets or Thunder, watch out.