SR – NBA 2020-21 Division Preview: The Southwest

A new NBA season is upon us, now a full seven days away from next Tuesday’s tip-off. And to commemorate the ringing-in of the new year, we’re doing things a little different than previous years in giving you, the reader, full and extensive team breakdowns. In a succinct manner, we’ll take a look at where each team in each division will fare in the coming 6-8 days leading up to the adjusted NBA season. We’ll let you know what records each team in all six divisions will finish with, their playoff positioning (or lack thereof) as well as what’s to be admired as a strength, or what’s to be monitored as a weakness heading into the 2020-21 campaign.

Today’s division: the Southwest.

Houston is fresh off of a Western Conference Semifinal visit, thanks to the contributions of James Harden and Russell Westbrook’s patented play style titled “small-ball”,  even if it was short-lived. Houston looks drastically different as an organization, currently seeking trade suitors to accompany the needs of disgruntled star James Harden and subsequently shipping Russell Westbrook away to the Washington Wizards.

Their GM and creator of the analytical-favoring small-ball, Daryl Morey let Rockets officials he wanted off the ship and is calling shots in Philly as the head of basketball operations. And in return, received John Wall, a protected second-round pick for next year, and DeMarcus Cousins in free agency. Additionally, a new Head coach was hired in the spring cleaning done by owner Tillman Fertitta, as Stephen Silas came over from his previous assistant coaching gig in Dallas to man the stations in H-Town. This division is very much so in the air, with Dallas as the sportsbook favorites to win the division for the first time since 2011. However, New Orleans, Memphis, and San Antonio will have something to say about that.

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1. Dallas Mavericks (Finished Last Season 43-32, 7th Seed in Western Playoffs)

2020 Offseason Acquisitions:

• Josh Richardson, SG/SF (trade with Philadelphia)
• Josh Green, SF (draft)
• Tyrell Terry, PG (draft)
• Tyler Bey, PG (draft)
• James Johnson, SF (free agency)

Key Losses

• Seth Curry, SG (traded to Philadelphia)
• Delon Wright SG (traded to Detroit)
• Justin Jackson, SG (traded to OKC)

Roster and Depth Chart:

• PG: Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson, Tyrell Terry, Tyler Bey
• SG: Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson, Tyrell Terry
• SF: Josh Richardson, Josh Green, Dorian Finney-Smith, James Johnson 
• PF: Maxi Kleiber, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis
• C: Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell, Willie Cauley-Stein

Strengths: 

• Luka Doncic. Pretty self-explanatory. The third-year Slovenian Superstar is on the shortlist of MVP favorites this season, and if last year’s statistical accolades proved anything, it’s only a matter of time until Doncic reels in his first Most Valuable Player award and title as league’s most dynamic player. It’s rather routine to check on Doncic when he gets the start on a regular basis, considering he’s usually on triple-double watch for those marveling at his skill to fill up a stat sheet. His eye-popping numbers of 28.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, and 8.8 apg from last year should see a rise with new offseason acquisition Josh Richardson taking on a majority of Doncic’s defensive assignments.

• Mavs’ Defense. Good luck trying to score on this team late down the stretch. Today’s modern emphasis of the prototypical two-way player at just about every position has to do with wingspan and lateral quickness, and Dallas made it a priority to have those exact qualities in their offseason dealings, sacrificing outside shooting and some cap space for versatile defenders who are adept at taking on switches up top on the perimeter and down low on the block. Richardson may not sound like the attractive pickup on the defensive end, but he’ll be essential for a team that finished 18th in defensive rating last season (111.2 points allowed per 100 possessions). Keep in mind, Richardson helped engineer the eighth-best defensive scheme in the league last season in his first and only year in Philadelphia.

Weaknesses:

• Clutch Rating. The Mavericks posted the most efficient offense in league history, but the question remains: Does Dallas improve off rookie mistakes with more experience under their belt and finish off games when they need to be put away? Getting rid of reliable PnR ballhandler and catch-and-shoot rhythm scorer Seth Curry could come at a detriment to a Mavericks team that posed the league’s second-worst offensive rating in the clutch last season (93.9 points scored per 100 possessions) and while his replacement in J-Rich shot the ball at a respectable 36.7 percent from downtown last year, the floor spacing for Doncic and crew to operate in crunch time may shrink. The losses by five points or more always pile up, and their sub-.500 record of 3-4 in OT last year says there is work cut out for a team that needs to emphasize finishing games when they have the opportunity to do so this year.

• Kristaps Porzingis’ Health. Head coach Rick Carlisle exclaimed to reporters that star center and fan-professed “Unicorn” Kristaps Porzingis won’t be setting foot on the hardwood until at least January. And in a shortened season that’s playoffs begin in May, it’ll be challenging to replicate Porzingis’ 20.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 2.0 bpg. with Maxi Kleiber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell filling in for the 7-foot sharpshooter and adequate rim protector. Though not for an extended period of time, Luka will have to do without his fellow all-star compadre’ that will help him stretch the floor and garner favorable mismatches for the first couple weeks of the season, which could harm Dallas’ chances of winning the division, if not slightly.

Record Prediction: 44-28.

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2. Houston Rockets (Finished Last Season 44-28, 4th in West)

2020 Offseason Acquisitions:

• John Wall, PG (trade with Washington)
• Christian Wood, PF (free agency)
• DeMarcus Cousins, C (free agency)
• Sterling Brown, SG (free agency)
• Kenyon Martin Jr. PG (draft)
• Stephen Silas, HC

Key Losses:

• Russell Westbrook, PG (trade)
• Robert Covington, SF/PF (trade)
• Austin Rivers, PG/SG (free agency)
• Jeff Green, PF/C (free agency)
• HC Mike D’Antoni

Roster and Depth Chart

• PG: John Wall, James Harden, Chris Clemons, Kenyon Martin Jr.
• SG: James Harden, Ben McLemore, Sterling Brown
• SF: Eric Gordon, Sterling Brown, Ben McLemore
• PF: Christian Wood, P.J. Tucker, Kenyon Martin Jr.
• C: P.J. Tucker, DeMarcus Cousins, Christian Wood

Strengths: 

• The Wall-Boogie PnR is going to be NUTS. Essentially replacing a former all-star guard with seismic athletic capabilities at the guard spot with another former all-star guard with seismic athletic capabilities at the guard spot works out on a usual occasion, right? Expect that to happen here. After two preseason games, it seems that John Wall’s twitch fibers respond well to the commands of force they’re asked to complete, and his Achilles, whom we as NBA fans were all concerned about since he hadn’t played a minute of NBA basketball in over two years because of its accidental tear, seems to be intact and stable. A small sample size? Yes, but an encouraging one at that. He was routinely blazing past Bulls guards without the frequent need for set picks and finishing with dexterity and confidence as if his injury never happened. DeMarcus Cousins also hadn’t suited up for anyone since he tore his ACL last offseason and he looks as spry as ever. The pick and roll and pick and pop sets Stephen Silas is planning to unleash on the Western Conference is quite dangerous as any duo that comes to mind, if both former All-NBA talents can stay healthy.

• Christian Wood has his own spotlight. Talk about stepping up when your number is called. Wood, a perennial 20-10 all-around stretch big impressed scouts, media experts, and fans across the league as he stepped up to the role of starting center in the wake of Andre Drummond’s departure. It’s apparent he’s going to be Houston’s third-best player behind Wall and Cousins as another screening and rolling/popping/fading/slipping option John Wall or Eric Gordon can play off of, so expect Stephen Silas to create a lot of switches both at the top of the key and under the basket. Think of Wood as a discounted Anthony Davis at the four; a confident handler of the rock who has a low-post game and quick pullup jumper at every level in the halfcourt. In the last 12 games of his season before the league’s COVID-19 suspension, he averaged 22 points and 10.2 rebounds per game on 54 percent shooting from the field and 37.3 percent shooting from three-point range. It’s uncertain just how good he can be, but the ceiling is there for him to reach in a spacious system under Silas, one of the architects who crafted the NBA’s most efficient offense ever in the 2019-20 Mavericks.

Weaknesses:

• PG depth. Who is the reliable backup at the point guard spot when Wall sits? Rookie Kenyon Martin Jr.? Undrafted tryout-er Jae’Sean Tate? Chris Clemons? David Nwaba? Eric Gordon? Those all don’t sound very appealing. One of the biggest negatives against Houston during their offseason was their failure to get a veteran point guard to run the offense and keep momentum up as the leader of the second unit. Letting Austin Rivers walk is still a headscratcher as well. There are a variety of skilled off-ball scorers that Houston can utilize like Ben McLemore and good role players like Sterling Brown to help move the rock, but no one that stands out as a dangerous sixth man you have to respect that can galvanize the team on both ends of the floor.

• The elephant in the room. Well, I mean…duh. You weren’t not expecting to hear the James Harden fluidity situation in this, were you? The six-time All-Star has expressed with a vehemence that he has no intent or desire to play alongside John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins and fellow teammate P.J. Tucker has aired similar grievances about an organization that’s grown sour internally. He missed the first two days of training camp and posted pictures to social media of various parties he was attending, while the rest of the Rockets were reporting to training camp and fielding questions from the media about the absence of the team’s star player. Harden then reported to practice a few days later on Dec. 8 and is “scheduled” to play on Tuesday’s home preseason game against San Antonio. Mistrust and vested interest on different sides has eroded this franchise, and their star wants out. Where he’ll go is unknown, but what is a known variable is that John Wall and James Harden are unlikely to stay together the full length of the season, no matter how much Stephen Silas wants to play mediator. Not having Harden critically threatens your chances of not just winning the division, but *making it* to the playoffs too.

Record prediction: 41-31.

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3. New Orleans Pelicans (Finished Last Season 30-42, 13th in West)

2020 Offseason Acquisitions: 

• Steven Adams, C (trade)
• Eric Bledsoe, PG (trade)
• George Hill, G (trade)
• Kira Lewis Jr., PG (draft)
• Wenyen Gabriel, F (free agency)

Key Losses

• Jrue Holiday, PG (trade)
• Derrick Favors, C (free agency)
• Kenrich Williams, G (trade)
• E’Twaun Moore, G (free agency)

Roster and Depth Chart:

PG: Lonzo Ball, Kira Lewis Jr., Eric Bledsoe, George Hill
SG: Eric Bledsoe, JJ Redick, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
SF: Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, JJ Redick
PF: Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Wenyen Gabriel
C: Steven Adams, Jaxson Hayes, Willy Hernangomez

Strengths: 

• Zion, Raw, and Uncut. It feels like it’s been forever since we saw Zion Williamson gear up and play a professional basketball game since he and his Pelicans went 2-6 inside the Lake Buena Vista bubble at Disney Springs in Orlando. From taking whoever was guarding him baseline or in the low post, Zion inflicting his grown manchild-like will on unsuspecting and less domineering defenders is always a joy to witness. The offseason was a little bit shorter to the former No. 1 overall pick, but his conditioning program seems to be paying off, per Twitter clips and pictures of the 22-year-old’s vascularity and slimmer figure on display. He’s maturing and taking the workload of an All-NBA staple seriously, as the skillset the Duke product already possesses conjoins with acumen and intelligence of Stan Van Gundy, a familiar face in the NBA coaching carousel who has found another home in the Big Easy and has “prior experience” ascending a big man into superstardom; check the history between him and Dwight Howard in Orlando for reference. The 2020-21 season means that the training wheels will be off, and no minutes restriction for the explosive power forward says it’ll be time to tune in when he takes the court.

• Guards, guards, I do adore. While they couldn’t come to an agreement for Jrue Holiday to stay in NOLA, the first conclusion that can be made when scanning this roster is ‘man they got worse at guard without Jrue Holiday’ and that couldn’t be further from the truth. It’d be a problem if they didn’t get a fraction of what Holiday was worth in return, but looking at the bigger picture, they got what Holiday gave to the Pelicans, but in shards. I’ll make a little more sense of that: you get your stingy, restrictive length on the perimeter still with Lonzo Ball as your starter and Eric Bledsoe in the second unit against opposing guards and scoring from new pickups George Hill and first-rounder Kira Lewis Jr. And in SVG’s small lineups, decision-making will come from the shared minutes between Josh Hart and JJ Redick. That might do the trick in the West, where exceptional guard play is a prerequisite for success.

Weaknesses:

• No true offseason to calibrate their attack. More of a “woe is me, adapt or get left behind” kind of hurdle to leap over, but it’s an issue nonetheless. Stan Van Gundy coming to New Orleans is a great thing, but it’s hard to get everyone on the same page when you have a little over 60-something days to scramble and get everyone – and everything – in planning to get New Orleans back into the postseason picture for the first time in three years. And not to mention, the Pels are in a clear-as-day rebuild. As the new head coach, where you don’t have strong relationships with your very young personnel as you do with your older-but-still-coachable two-guard JJ Redick in your huddle, the job is going to be on-the-fly as it gets for SVG, who returns to head coaching responsibilities for the first time since 2016.

• BI and Zion: is there enough outside shooting help for the wing scorers? A legitimate concern to have, but ultimately one that will reveal itself in the coming weeks and months of the regular season. While JJ Redick is excluded from the deficiency and, quite frankly a majority of the team since they finished last season with the seventh-best team three-point percentage in the league, trading Jrue Holiday for Eric Bledsoe could do more harm than good. Holiday shot a little over 35 percent as a primary shot creator and took the pressure off both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson for the frontcourt tandem to create on the wings. Bledsoe shot around 34 percent and was dually underwhelming in the bubble, shooting 25 percent from deep. Now add Bledsoe or the streaky shooting of Lonzo Ball to that starting lineup, and that team percentage from last season visibly drops.

Record Prediction: 39-33.

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4. Memphis Grizzlies (Finished Last Season 34-39, 9th in West)

2020 Key Acquisitions:

• Mario Hezonja, SF (trade with Portland)
• Desmond Bane, SF (draft)
• Xavier Tillman, PF (draft)
• Tyus Jones, PG (draft)

Key Losses:

• N/A

Roster and Depth Chart:

PG: Ja Morant, Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton
SG: Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Desmond Bane
SF: Kyle Anderson, Justise Winslow
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman Sr.
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke

Strengths: 

• A true big four reminiscent of the Grit N’ Grind days. A proficiently-scoring, defensively-reliable big at the PF position. An explosive aficionado at the point with a true feel for the game. A tough-nosed, gallant leader of men in the center of the locker room. An efficient lockdown defender and consistent scorer off the catch. History is surely repeating itself in Memphis. Much like the Zach Randolph, Mike Conley Sr., and Tony Allen days, things are really starting to shape themselves in the style of old with subtle modern touch-ups. Ja Morant is the franchise cornerpiece and will be receiving All-NBA honors throughout this year and beyond. But when we last left off the Grizzlies’ saga, it didn’t end ideally for ol’ Grizz, as they were seen leaving the NBA bubble hungry for another taste of the postseason atmosphere created by the play-in game they lost to the Portland Trail Blazers.

• Fight and Resolve. The young Grizzlies showed how much they wanted their postseason berth above all, signaled by how hard they fought against Damian Lillard and those Blazers, who were, subsequently, Gentleman’s swept in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs. Granted, it was a learning experience for Ja (who put on a show while dropping a career-high 35 points) and the crew, but what was solidified in the bubble was something to build their entire organization around. Morant, along with Jaren Jackson Jr. (fresh off meniscus surgery and ready to go), the massively efficient Brandon Clarke, and sixth man DeAnthony Melton are ready to create shockwaves to, again, put the West on notice that these kids are for real.

Weaknesses:

• Youthful and undermanned. While it’s a positive that Memphis is filled to the brim with potential, future projections rarely, if ever, translate to a bunch of wins early on for a roster filled with rookie and second-year projects. The idea was to keep up the cohesion and development of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, and Dillon Brooks rather than to rely on the quick fix of outside talent acquisition to accumulate a couple more wins than what they usually have at year’s end. They re-signed DeAnthony Melton on a four-year, $35 Million deal as he’s a building block for a promising future, and that could be a done deal when the market tells the team to scavenge for a two-way guard. But if we’re talking now, the West is too talented to face off against when you don’t have much other than your big four to compete with.

• Injuries to key pieces. Two key players in forwards Jaren Jackson Jr. and Justise Winslow won’t be in the Grizzlies’ lineup come tip-off and the coming weeks after, as the two have been nursing ailments that have sidelined them since last season. As mentioned before, Jackson suffered his torn meniscus back on August 8, while Winslow is still recovering from a hip injury suffered back in July during a practice session in the bubble. Head coach Taylor Jenkins will be challenged out of the gate to formulate a gameplan that compensates for Jackson’s absence – and replicating his adeptness at stopping guards off switches, defending the rim, and shooting the three-ball in an abnormal, shortened season is easier said than done.

Record Prediction: 35-37.

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5. San Antonio Spurs (Finished Last Season 32-39, 11th in West)

2020 Offseason Acquisitions:

• Devin Vassell, G/F (draft)
• Tre Jones, G (draft)

Key Losses:

• Bryn Forbes (free agency)

Roster and Depth Chart:

PG: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Tre Jones
SG: Derrick White, Patty Mills, Keldon Johnson
SF: DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, Devin Vassell
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, Trey Lyles, Rudy Gay, Quinndary Weatherspoon
C: Jakob Poeltl, LaMarcus Aldridge, Drew Eubanks

Strengths:

• A new play style in San Antonio? When we last left off on the Spurs story, Gregg Popovich and his Spurs were facing imminent failure in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 1997. So, they dabbled in experiment, opting for increased tempo in the offense, early shot-clock operation and a brand of small-ball to fill the void left by the injured Trey Lyles and LaMarcus Aldridge. Seemed like a one time thing, considering how Pop is more often than not the stick-to-what-works kind of coach. But in a surprising turn of events, he stripped SA bare of their typically rigid structure of two bigs and three guards, instead choosing to put on four guards and one prominent big. This resulted in the creation of mismatches aplenty, and now Pop might just have finally opened up to the idea of analytic-favoring small lineups that control the pace of games and put up points on the board.

• More three-point shooting in 2020-21 from their stars. A returning LaMarcus Aldridge only spells good things for the Spurs, who are in dire need of their veteran forward’s help as both a shooter and defender. The former All-Star finished his season with a career-high in made 3PT (61 in 2019-20) and attempts (157) from deep, and you can expect to see that new wrinkle in the Spurs’ offense this upcoming season. That should wear off on the rest of the team, considering the importance of spacing the floor and making driving lanes for DeMar DeRozan and the rest of the guards on the roster.

Weaknesses:

• A limited flexibility to improve the roster. Largely, this team is just about the same from last year, AKA the roster that became the first team in nearly three decades to miss out on the postseason. San Antonio wasn’t on the lucky end of possessing a bunch of cap space to grab a free agent; save that privilege for future offseasons when they have the opportunity to create a max cap slot. They did the safe thing in taking care of their own free agent by re-signing Drew Eubanks, and bolstered their youth department by selecting 3-and-D prospect Devin Vassell out of Florida State with the 11th pick and floor general Tre Jones out of Duke in the second round. The Spurs generally don’t roll out rookies to start the season, and while they’ll have a chance to crack the rotation, that doesn’t quite spell immediate improvement for a team that was at the bottom of the division last year.

• Just because they want to shoot more, doesn’t mean they can. Additionally, and more significantly due to free agency negotiations that fell through, San Antonio both lost Bryn Forbes, who signed a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Bucks and Marco Belinelli, who went back to Italy. San Antonio ranked 28th last season in 3-point attempts (28.5) and fourth in accuracy (37.6%), and losing two of their role players specifically used for bettering that statistic in the free market doesn’t heal that wound.

• Age is not on their side. So LMA is back. Cool, but he’s 35. Re-injury is cause for concern as is the uncertainty of his ideal fit in a progressively-transforming offensive system that favors breakneck pace and pushes in transition. Not what the aging Aldridge had in mind when he is to return, since the Texas product is an old-school big man that is either on one spot on the floor or the other as a screener/popper or back-down scorer underneath the basket.

Record Prediction: 30-41.

Photo Cred: OTGBasketball.com/Charles Allen