Well, we are finally here. The last Sunday of the 2019 NFL season is upon us and either the Kansas City Chiefs or the San Francisco 49ers are going to be crowned champions at the end of the night. As we wait for Super Bowl LIV to kickoff (6:30 PM EST on Fox), the natural thing to do would be our normal Primetime Preview, where we give you all the background and intel on each team playing and then use that information to provide a prediction of the night’s outcome.
However, this isn’t just another primetime game, and it isn’t just another playoff matchup. This is the Super Bowl!
For that, we’re going to do something a little different in this space but before we get too deep in the weeds, here’s a look back at the last time these two teams faced off on the football field. In Week 3 of 2018, Patrick Mahomes was just beginning to put together the best statistical debut season of any quarterback in NFL history. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo was looking to prove to naysayers that he had what it took to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
The game ended with the Chiefs winning 38-27 and Garoppolo was forced to exit early with what would be diagnosed as a torn ACL.
For this Super Bowl edition of SneakerReporter’s Primetime Preview, we’re going to dig deeper than just narratives. We’ve done some digging, crunched some numbers and below we will reveal the three most important matchups of the night. The “winner” of these will likely go a long way towards determining who ends the night with the Lombardi trophy and who doesn’t.
The reason for the change-up is that with a week off between the championship round and the Super Bowl, the normal information that you get from a Primetime Preview has been talked about at length by nearly every sports media outlet by now. Instead of giving you more of the stuff you’ve theoretically heard on a loop since the matchup was set, let’s bring something different. Something that you can keep track of as you’re watching the game.
MATCHUP 1: 49ers Pass Rush vs. Andy Reid Playcalling
When the media talks about the 49ers one of the first things that they mention is their defense and more specifically, their pass rush. While they have singular talent along their line–including Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa–the strength of their attack has been their depth along the line. This season, 12 different players have recorded at least one sack for San Francisco and of those 12, eight are defensive linemen. Arik Armstead led the team with 10 and Bosa slightly trailed with nine.
As a whole, the pass rush ranked first on third downs, plays in opponent’s territory, and early in games. Being first in those categories naturally paints the picture of a team that is dominant on that side of the ball. If the offense can’t convert third downs that results in punts and field goals rather than touchdowns. If the opponents don’t have success when the ball is on their end it becomes harder to score. If you can dictate the momentum of a game early it allows your offense to build a lead and leaves the other team with an uphill battle the remainder of the game.
However, it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Robert Salah’s group. One area to watch tonight will be the red zone. Obviously, this is somewhere everyone watches regardless because it’s where the scoring usually occurs. Tonight, it will be spotlighted even more because the Niners defense was not great in that part of the field. Among all red zone defenses, they ranked 27th against the pass, had the third-worst sack rate, and were dead last against 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) personnel.
But, the cause for concern doesn’t end there. San Francisco’s pass rush is a tale of two play types. On plays without play-action, they had the number one sack rate in the NFL. Compare that to plays with play-action and the ranking drops all the way down to 22nd.
Knowing this information, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid–with an extra week to prepare–will have some tricks up his sleeve tonight. Reid will be tasked with figuring out the right calls to make against a very talented defense that has some clear weaknesses. With a quarterback like Mahomes, he doesn’t need to pitch a perfect game but if they can exploit this known issue then it will give them a leg up in this game.
We’ve heard a lot about how the 49ers will likely keep a lot of their defenders in coverage and let their front four try and keep Mahomes corralled. It is a tactic that the team used for most of the year and is a big reason why they are even in the Super Bowl this season. However, their strength does have its flaws. The Niners pass rush is bad on early downs, in the red zone, and late in games. Look for Reid to try and attack this team through the air early in often. Partially due to playing in the NFC West, San Francisco didn’t face many teams that looked to throw the ball 35-plus times a game. Mahomes would love nothing more than to drop back 40-50 times and test the speed of his receivers against Richard Sherman and the rest of the San Francisco secondary.
MATCHUP #2: 49ers Aerial Attack vs. Chiefs Secondary
San Francisco’s defense is getting a lot of the love–their defense versus Kansas City offense is being billed as a strength-on-strength matchup–but the offense shouldn’t be overlooked. Kyle Shanahan has proved time-and-time again that he has the smarts to hang with just about anyone offensively. Let’s not forget he was the one who beautifully orchestrated a gameplan to put the Atlanta Falcons up 28-3 against the New England Patriots (he probably wants us to forget how that game ended though).
The more accurate strength-on-strength matchup between these two teams will occur between Garoppolo and the Chiefs secondary. Kansas City was the best Cover 3 team in the NFL, they held opponents to 7.1 yards per pass attempt and only allowed a 44 percent success rate when running the coverage. On the other side of the ball, San Francisco has the best quarterback against Cover 3 defenses on early downs. With Garoppolo receiving the snaps, the 49ers averaged 11.4 yards per attempt and had a 65 percent success rate.
Over the last four years, no team has had a higher rate of 20-plus yard pass plays than the (insert drumroll here…) Niners. Shanahan is bringing the most explosive offense in the NFL with him to Miami, yet the way they get those big gains is different than most teams. Rather than letting Garoppolo drop back and air it out all over the field, the Niners rely more on their playmakers gaining additional yardage after the catch.
San Francisco attempts 65 percent (most in the NFL) of their passes between the numbers–think slants, drags, screens, etc.–and their quick-passing game allows for the ball to be out of Garoppolo’s hands before the opponents can get pressure in the pocket. Due to their propensity to play Cover 3, the Chiefs were the third-best team on passes outside of the numbers. When facing throws between the numbers though, they ranked 20th on all downs and it dropped even lower to 30th on early downs.
Look for Shanahan and Garoppolo to attack this area of the field often, which could result in big nights for George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Emmanuel Sanders if things are clicking for the Niners.
MATCHUP #3: 49ers Motion Offense vs. Chiefs D-Line
Two weeks ago, Raheem Mostert became a household name because he absolutely carved up the Green Bay Packers finishing with a Niners playoff record 220 yards on the ground to which he added four touchdowns. Going into that game, many expected San Francisco to try and use the run game to gain an advantage against Green Bay. One, the run defense had been an area of weakness for the Packers all season and two, it kept Aaron Rodgers on the sideline more than he was on the field.
The Chiefs have not been great against the run the last two seasons. It would seem like a logical conclusion that the 49ers might try to ground-and-pound their way to victory once again. It becomes even more logical when you find out that Kansas City ranks dead last against runs with pre-snap motion; it is their single biggest issue as a defense. Add on top of that the fact that they are the fifth-worst against runs from 21 (2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs) personnel and allowed 5.5 yards per carry (#27) on these plays.
This season, Andy Reid’s team rarely faced teams that used 21 personnel. That won’t be the case tonight.
San Francisco had the fourth-best run success from 21 personnel (shout out to Kyle Juszczyk) and uses 21 personnel more than any other team in the league. Another staple of their run game, pre-snap motion. The Niners are the team that uses pre-snap motion before runs the most. Watch the above video of Mostert’s breakout performance one more time, only three of the plays on the tape do not feature some sort of movement or motion from someone in a San Francisco uniform prior to the ball being snapped.
Last week, with Chris Jones back on the field, Kansas City showed that they had what it takes to slow down Derrick Henry who had steamrolled the Titans to the AFC championship game on the back of some of the most impressive running back play in NFL history. However, the way Shanahan uses the run is a totally different scenario for this group. They will need to be even better than last week if they want to be able to keep the Niners out of the end zone when it matters most.
PREDICTION: CHEIFS 41 , 49ers 37
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