Week 7 gets started with two AFC West divisional rivals who enter the game going in different directions. For most of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs were thought to be one of the primary contenders in the AFC to get to the Super Bowl. With Patrick Mahomes back and a full year’s worth of experience under his belt, the thought was Kansas City would easily make a return trip to the AFC Championship game at worse. However, they enter tonight’s game having lost two straight—both at home—after starting the year 4-0. Their losses have come to two upper-echelon teams in the conference (Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans) but if the Chiefs have their sights set on the ultimate prize those are games they can’t afford to lose especially when they are played at Arrowhead Stadium. The Denver Broncos, on the other hand, lost their first four games by a combined total of 21 points. Two of those loses came on game-winning field goals by their opponents (Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars) and they were suffered in the Mile High City. The first-year head coach, Vic Fangio, stuck to it and the team has responded with back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans, which are two significant victories.
QB Matchup – Patrick Mahomes vs. Joe Flacco
The two quarterbacks taking the field find themselves at vastly different stages of their careers. One is on the tail-end of his and the other is just scratching the surface of what is to come. The second of those is a description of Patrick Mahomes. After winning the MVP last year in his first season as a starter, many assumed that he would not fall off in any way for the 2019 season. When the year began he opened as the betting favorite to repeat and it wasn’t until last week that someone (Russell Wilson) overtook him in the odds. It’s not that Mahomes has fallen off a steep cliff or anything but after back-to-back mediocre (by his standards) games and the Chiefs losing streak, it is hard to just blindly put faith behind him as was done early. He’s still on pace to have as good of a statistical year but if Kansas City isn’t winning games, numbers alone won’t help him sway voters. Tonight’s a chance for him to remind us all why we were gushing over him all offseason.
When Joe Flacco makes the headlines it usually isn’t because of his play—or should I say it isn’t because he’s playing well. Though he has won a Super Bowl and a Super Bowl MVP award, he never received anything close to the admiration that Mahomes has gotten. Is Joe Flacco elite is one of the all-time great philosophical questions of mankind. After getting shown the door in Baltimore following the rapid rise of Lamar Jackson, Flacco is hoping to prove to the league that there still is some gas left in his tank. He might not be on empty yet but his performance to date hasn’t exactly been Earth-shattering in any way. Denver just needs him to be steady and consistent and to avoid turnovers, all things he has proven capable of doing during his career.
RB Matchup – Damien Williams/LeSean McCoy/Darrell Williams vs. Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman
It seems that Andy Reid could pick up anyone off the street, throw some shoulder pads on them and have them run wheel routes out of the backfield. Currently, the Chiefs are operating with a three-headed monster of sorts in their backfield. LeSean McCoy, Damien, and Darrell Williams have rotated on the field and injuries have kept some out for certain weeks but the mantra for Kansas City has been quantity over quality. That is not to say that their trio of running backs isn’t talented as much as it highlights Reid’s ability to find the right pieces to use at a position that is so vital to his entire offensive scheme. With each one mirroring the skills of the other, there’s no tell for the defense if a certain one is on the field as opposed to the others.
In Denver, there’s a committee approach as well between Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. Both came to the Broncos together in 2018–Freeman was selected in the third round and Lindsay was brought in as an undrafted free agent. Yet, it’s been Lindsay who has seen more success to begin his career. Last season, he became the first undrafted rookie in NFL history to be selected to the Pro Bowl. Of late, he’s been on a pretty good tear scoring touchdowns in consecutive weeks and totaling 219 yards from scrimmage in those games. Freeman hasn’t been cast aside yet but the team has shown that it will stick with the hot hand if someone is having a better night.
WR Matchup – Courtland Sutton vs. Tyreek Hill
When the season started, both teams thought that their wide receiver room would have multiple go-to players. Now, it looks more likely that there’s one player atop the totem pole on each side. For Denver, that player is Courtland Sutton. He is a player built in the classic “Wide Receiver 1” mold (tall, fast, athletic) and has developed a pretty nice connection with Joe Flacco this year. Kansas City has had issues in their secondary the last few years and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Denver use Sutton to try and attack that weakness early and often during the game.
The Chiefs went from having that diversity on the outside to Tyreek Hill basically being the last man standing. Sammy Watkins is out due to injury, Mecole Hardman takes a back seat to Hill, and Demarcus Robinson has been virtually silent after an explosive Week 2 performance against the Oakland Raiders. Not to worry, Mahomes and Hill by themselves are still lethal enough to put fear in nearly any defensive coordinator. Hill is a world-class speedster and can break loose in the blink of an eye. Mahomes has the requisite arm strength to string a beautiful 60-70 yard bomb that lands right into Hill’s arms perfectly. Hill only returned to action last week and yet the two didn’t skip a beat connecting for two touchdowns.
TE Matchup – Noah Fant vs. Travis Kelce
The types of players, or should I say, athletes, who have played the tight end position in the modern NFL have drastically changed. What once was merely an extra blocker has now become a spot where game changers can line up. The Kansas City Chiefs have the best in the game currently with Travis Kelce on their roster. He was called “Baby Gronk” early in his career and with Gronkowski now working for Fox Sports instead of the New England Patriots he’s got top dog status all to himself. Kelce does it all, block, catch, run, you name it he does it. His ability to dominate inside or outside the hash marks is truly revolutionary. Kansas City isn’t shy about how they use him either as he gets moved all around the formation on a drive-by-drive basis.
The Broncos are hoping that they have someone who will one day be referred to as “Baby Kelce”. They drafted Noah Fant 20th overall in the 2019 NFL Draft—12 picks after his college teammate and fellow tight end T.J. Hockenson was taken by the Detroit Lions—and in Flacco, they have a quarterback who has loved to throw to his tight ends over the course of his career. Fant’s transition to the NFL hasn’t been as quick as Denver would hope but every now and again he flashes that potential that made the Broncos target him so high in the draft last year. When it does all click for the rookie watch out.
DEF Matchup – Von Miller vs. Frank Clark
Usually, the defense section focuses on the overall unit for both teams however, the meat and potatoes of these two defenses come off the edge. No disrespect to Chris Harris Jr. but if the Broncos defense is going to have any chance at getting their third straight win they’ll need Von Miller to be at his most disruptive all night long. Mahomes is no slouch escaping the pocket but he’s been hobbled recently by a nagging ankle injury so he might not be as spry in his attempts to evade pass rushers. Miller has shown no signs of rust or slowing down and looks to be on his way towards another All-Pro season. If he steps up in a big way then Denver has a shot to be in a close game tonight.
Opposite him will be Frank Clark for the Chiefs. Kansas City gave the Seattle Seahawks 2019 first and third-round picks (which became defensive end L.J. Collier and linebacker Cody Barton) and a 2020 second-round pick to acquire Clark in April. They then signed him to a $100 million-plus contract. Needless to say, they are expecting him to make a massive difference for this franchise. To date, he’s put together a pedestrian stat line of 12 tackles, one sack, one interception, and one forced fumble. He has to be more impactful getting to the quarterback and tonight might be his best opportunity. No one would refer to Flacco as being fleet of foot so if Clark can bend the edge properly he’ll likely be able to get to the tall quarterback unimpeded. If that’s the case, Kansas City could be walking out with a blowout victory.
PREDICTION: Kansas City 31 , Denver 14
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