To truly dissect the potential for upsets in the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, we must delve beyond surface-level observations and consider the nuanced dynamics that define March Madness.

High Point, as a potential Cinderella story, will likely need to rely on an explosive offensive performance. Their path to victory hinges on their ability to generate high-percentage scoring opportunities, particularly from beyond the arc. A truly exceptional shooting night, coupled with limiting turnovers that often plague high-tempo offenses, is paramount. They must also identify and exploit defensive mismatches, recognizing that a higher-seeded opponent may underestimate their scoring prowess. High Point’s success will ultimately depend on whether their offensive firepower can overwhelm a more defensively sound team.

VCU’s “Havoc” defense, a trademark of their program, remains their most potent weapon. To engineer an upset, they must amplify their defensive intensity, forcing a high volume of turnovers and disrupting the rhythm of their opponent’s offense. This requires a relentless, full-court pressure that can rattle even the most composed ball-handlers. VCU’s ability to convert those turnovers into quick, efficient scoring opportunities is equally critical. They must avoid allowing their defensive aggression to translate into excessive fouls, which could negate their advantage. The key is to create a sense of chaos that throws their opponent off their game, thus creating easy scoring opportunities.

Yale, representing the Ivy League, must leverage their disciplined, methodical approach to upset a higher-seeded team. Their strategy should revolve around controlling the tempo of the game, minimizing mistakes, and capitalizing on their opponent’s errors. This requires precise execution of their offensive sets, patient ball movement, and a commitment to strong defensive positioning. Yale’s ability to limit the athletic advantages of their opponent through intelligent play and strategic fouling is essential. They must excel in rebounding and free-throw shooting, two crucial aspects of tournament basketball. Furthermore, a well-executed game plan, one that exploits any tactical weaknesses of the opposing team, will be very important.

Drake’s path to an upset hinges on the experience and cohesion of their team. A strong, experienced core of players, particularly in the guard positions, is essential. They must possess the ability to execute under pressure, make smart decisions in crucial moments, and demonstrate a high level of basketball IQ. Drake’s defensive approach must be disciplined and focused, limiting their opponent’s scoring opportunities and forcing them into contested shots. Their coach’s ability to devise and implement effective game plans, particularly in terms of matchup adjustments, will be a significant factor. A true leader on the court, and a coach that can make in game adjustments will be vital.

New Mexico, playing in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference, could be very well prepared for the tournament. Their success depends on their ability to translate their conference experience into tournament victories. They must maintain a high level of intensity and physicality, mirroring the style of play they encounter in their conference. Their ability to defend against high-powered offenses, and maintain their own offensive efficiency against strong defensive teams, will be crucial. New Mexico’s success will also rely on their ability to handle the pressure of the tournament environment, and maintain their composure in close games. They must also have a very strong bench that can provide quality minutes.