SR – NBA Bubble Breakdowns: #18 San Antonio Spurs
FeaturedIt’s another day that we inch closer to the restart of the NBA season, and that means it’s time to add another edition of the Bubble Breakdowns into the countdown. It’s day five of our countdown and since we’re 18 days away from the official resumption, it’s time to add team No. 18 to this list.
Today’s squad headed to Orlando: the San Antonio Spurs.
After 23 long years of continuous playoff qualification and repeated success produced by Gregg Popovich, who would’ve thought that the Spurs would have ever been caught in this predicament. While jockeying for position in a tight clinch with four other teams battling for the eighth and final seed in the West, the Spurs face the imminent danger of missing out on the postseason for the first time since 1997 if they don’t get within four games of challenging for the final playoff as they’ll be unable to force a play-in tournament.
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San Antonio’s Season in Review (27-36, 12th in West)
Much of San Antonio’s difficulties this year could have very well stemmed from an archaic playing style that prioritizes utilizing the area within the arc as primary spots to score, evident by the Spurs shooting the 28th most amount of threes of any team in the NBA. The Spurs lost eight games in a row from Nov. 9-22, and why is that losing skid significant, you ask? Former Spurs head coach Bob Hill, the guy who was canned before Gregg Popovich, was the only Spurs head coach in franchise history to have a worse losing skid than the five-time champion head coach back in 1996, the year he was let go.
And as we can all recount history, the next month Gregg Popovich – the team’s general manager back then – fired Hill and assumed responsibilities as the coach. San Antonio finished 20-62, won the NBA Draft lottery and selected Tim Duncan with the No. 1 overall pick. So it’s practically a full cycle of karma that you could say the Spurs organization is undergoing.
Now, two decades later, 71-year old Popovich is experiencing a downturn of the same sorts: the harrowing reality of a lottery pick year ensuing as a result of not adapting towards the league-wide trend of following analytics, refusing to transition his coaching methods to conform to the successfully-proven methods of pace and space, pick and roll, motion offense that allows the current archetypal players to flex their strengths in the open court, and not having enough star power other than their two All-Stars in DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge.
And by the way, Aldridge is going to miss the rest of the season due to a procedure done on his left shoulder. Replicating his productivity while on the bubble of the eighth seed doesn’t’ show a whole lot of good for this Spurs team.
But let’s get real for a quick second: we all predicted that the Spurs would get in the mesh of things in such an arduous West either one way or another. And we’d all have this presumptive picture in mind that playoff seeding for one of the most classy and functional organizations in all of sports would be stapled in the playoff picture somehow.
I mean, it’s just the collective ordinance of things: A Gregg Popovich-coached team based off of proper usage of fundamental, boring and non-pizazz type of scheme that produces mightily come postseason time when it’s usually up to unheralded (albeit most of the time, international) prospects to fit like puzzle pieces with their three-to-four integral team members to take down some of the West’s biggest powers, even though they themselves lack the household name-worthy talent.
But it seems the old device of tradition that Popovich has favored for more than 20 years has run its course, and though it’s brought championship gold to the table five times, there are too many things holding the Spurs back from hitting that championship potential, and really it doesn’t just boil down to their lack of significant talent. Derrick White, DeJounte Murray, Marco Bellinelli, Patty Mills, Jakob Poetl, and others are solid, pure playmakers in a Popovich-led offense, which in itself bellies its own definition.
Leading the NBA in % of PTS from mid-range (17.3 PPG) … watch the @spurs' best buckets from mid-range territory of the 2019-20 season so far!
NBA Restart begins July 30th! #WholeNewGame pic.twitter.com/wrIC46hGMW
— NBA (@NBA) July 10, 2020
But even if the Spurs rank 11th in the NBA for total offensive efficiency, it’s the fact that Pop’s maverick-like attitude when it comes to his playcalling just isn’t in accordance with the modern NBA anymore. Also, keep in mind that the Spurs are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, with their 24th-ranked defensive efficiency (112.8).
They’ve struggled to score around the perimeter and, go figure, have been even worse trying to guard the perimeter as well. Both Aldridge and DeRozan didn’t have the best season trying to stop versatile wing scorers from burning them from deep, and it seems that the rest of the team has followed their lead.
However, they’ve started in the trending upwards of improvement to troubleshoot some of these issues, like sending Demarre Carroll, one of their worst defenders, to the Houston Rockets and subsequently giving more minutes to the athletic Lonnie Walker IV, their esteemed second-year two-guard out of Miami that the organization has been so high on all year.
One key moment that signified an impending future that could be focused around Walker this year was San Antonio’s huge double OT win over Houston at home. James Harden’s Rockets took a commanding 16-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, and Popovich put Walker on the floor to see what he could do in what looked like a night of learning and reflection for a Spurs team that was down on their luck. Walker would then go on to drop 19 points in the fourth quarter and force overtime, leading up to a 28-point night and coming-out show for the guard, who came off the bench to spark his team to victory.
There have been moments this year that have reminded us of just how potent a Spurs team has always been when you throw them into the fray of a stacked Western Conference. Who could forget the Clippers matchup inside the AT&T center on November 29, when San Antonio fans booed and jeered ex-communicated Spur Kawhi Leonard in 107-97 statement victory?
Or the other emotional moments when time overlapped itself, as assistant head coach Tim Duncan took over as Head coach for a night when Coach Pop couldn’t be in the building for “personal reasons” during a 104-103 home win against the Charlotte Hornets, and when the era of the dominant Big Three came to an official end on November 11 when San Antonio hung the legendary jersey of Tony Parker into the rafters with assistant coach Duncan and Pop watching with admiration from afar.
The Spurs are well within the fold of making the postseason and extending one of the most impressive streak of playoff visits in all of sports, but will have to rely on integrating some new play styles and rigidity on the defensive end if they’re serious about it.
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San Antonio’s Roster For Season Resumption: The post-big-three era in SA isn’t off to a great start, but a regrouping and playoff qualification is “doable”.
To put it neatly, it’d be comparing night and day assessing this roster and comparing it to playoff-ready teams in years past. It’s still weird to consider that not that long ago, San Antonio was the one team out West that no one dare wanted to go up against during any round of the postseason, but that was years ago.
Then again, it’s not all that bad when you take a gander on just what Coach Pop will roll out on the court come later this month.
Having your starting lineup consist of DeRozan and Aldridge is still threatening, no matter how two-dimensional DeRozan’s game may be, and no matter how many years Aldridge is past his prime. DeRozan, their dynamic slashing shooting guard who is in his second season as a Spur, is averaging a solid 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. But the problem of him not opting to pop the three has hurt the Spurs in multitudes.
😱 @DeMar_DeRozan's (22.2 PPG) best high-flying slams for the @spurs!
NBA Restart begins July 30th with games all day & night. #WholeNewGame pic.twitter.com/SPGoEUQzeK
— NBA (@NBA) July 10, 2020
His only three this season was against the Clippers in a 10-point win, as he still hasn’t factored in the three-ball into his game, all because of his choice not to do so.
“I just don’t shoot ‘em. It’s not a matter of I can’t shoot ‘em, just never shoot them. But whenever I get the opportunity, I am going to shoot them. I don’t mind missing, I don’t mind whatever. It’s just a matter of me shooting ‘em,” DeRozan said in a press conference after his Spurs beat the Clippers back in December.
As for Aldridge, the 34-year-old big man was a throwback to the old interior bigs that shrunk defenses but didn’t exactly create enough space for their other four teammates to operate with off-ball. And while he wasn’t the same type of player dating back to his days as a Trail Blazer, LMA was still a doozy to stick within the mid-range. He averaged 18.9 points and 7.4 rebounds in 33.1 minutes per game this season and replacing his value is something that doesn’t look like something that the rest of these Spurs will be able to do on paper.
But that doesn’t mean they should be counted out.
“He’s definitely going to be a loss as far as the team with his leadership, scoring, and stuff like that,” Lyles said. “I think everybody is going to be able to step up – me particularly,” said Trey Lyles, a former Kentucky Wildcat and first-in-line substitute for Aldridge once the season resumes in Orlando in an interview with Jeff Garcia from NBC News 4 in San Antonio.
“I’ve had to endure some of his minutes and I think it’s shown in a positive way,” he said.
More views from last night's first practice in Orlando 📸
Day ✌️ coming up! pic.twitter.com/S5Ajligw64
— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) July 12, 2020
And he may be right, to an extent. He’s shown flashes of him being able to carry the weight when LMA isn’t on the floor, as shown during his matching of his longest career-streak of 20-plus points with 20 points and six rebounds against Indiana on March 2, as well as his grabbing of a career-high 14 rebounds against the #1 seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the East.
If Pop needs him to stretch the floor at the four, he also showed that he is a capable 3-point shooter making four 3-point shots in three games. Alongside him in the Spurs frontcourt is that of Jakob Poetl (5.3 ppg., 5.3 rpg., 1.8 apg.), another lengthy big that is efficient around the rim shooting an impressive 61 percent, but has missed five games over the course of the season due to a knee injury. His knee is fine, as reported, and he is likely to see a bump in total minutes on the floor as the starting center.
In the backcourt, the Spurs expect to roll out the duo of starting guard DeJounte Murray (10.7 ppg., 5.8 rpg., 4.1 apg.), Bryn Forbes (11.2 ppg., 2 rpg., 1.7 apg.) and alongside him as a starter at the two slot. Pop will likely bump up DeRozan to play Small Forward to disguise his looks in the halfcourt.
As it goes for the bench, Gregg Popovich will rely on off-ball scorer and swingmen Patty Mills (11.7 ppg., 1.6 rpg., 1.8 apg.), Lonnie Walker IV (5.6 ppg., 2.2 rpg., 0.9 apg.) and Marco Bellinelli (5.8 ppg., 1.7 rpg., 1.2 apg.) to provide energy and an offensive spark for the second unit, Small Forward Rudy Gay (10 ppg., 5.4 rpg., 1.7 apg.) to be the old isolation scorer he’s always been within the system, and rookie forward Keldon Johnson (4.6 ppg., 1.9 rpg., 0.7 apg.) to stretch the floor with his own three-ball and provide length on the perimeter defensively. Also, backup center Chimezie Metu (2.9 ppg., 1.6 rpg., 0.4 apg.) will see a rise in minutes as the rotation shifts.
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San Antonio’s Schedule, At A Glance
As mentioned yesterday, it’s a toss-up when comparing Sacramento and San Antonio as to who will have it harder in Orlando. But off of the strength of schedule, the Spurs have a slight advantage when it comes to an easier schedule.
The @spurs NBA Comeback seeding games schedule! #WholeNewGame pic.twitter.com/a6qZsn81TW
— NBA (@NBA) June 27, 2020
In fact, their first game is against those very Kings who have that 1.5-game advantage over them to kick off their Orlando restart. Soon after that, they have the team that they and four other teams are gunning at for the eighth seed in the Memphis Grizzlies, which should be a competitive matchup since how well the two teams match up with each other. Two games later, San Antonio has run-ins with three-straight playoff-seeded teams in the lengthy 76ers, the always-threatening Nuggets, and the defensively-sound but somewhat undermanned Utah Jazz.
To finish off their schedule in Orlando, they’ll have to play Zion Williamson (who exploded against them for 21 and 17 in the fourth quarter of their last matchup) again, and hope they can squeeze another win against the New Orleans Pelicans. After that, they’ll have one final Battle of Texas in a duel against the Houston Rockets and then another game against Utah to close out the Orlando resumption, while letting the chips fall where they may.
Strength of schedule for the NBA restart: pic.twitter.com/uha6fDWNF4
— Jacob Goldstein (@JacobEGoldstein) June 26, 2020
Orlando could mean either one of two things at the end of the abridged season: a trying effort that will end with the incentive of keeping the playoff streak alive, or the realization of the reality that the Spurs must be forced to start from scratch in order to rebuild for the next generation of Spurs to make their mark.