As the Memphis Grizzlies came out on top over the Golden State Warriors after an exciting overtime win on the road inside the Chase Center the second-annual NBA Play-In Tournament this evening, the 2020-21 NBA Playoff picture is 100 percent set in stone. The first tip-off of the postseason between the hosting Milwaukee Bucks and defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat will take place at 2 p.m. ET on ABC.
72 games have come and gone just like that for the 16 teams left in the field after the dust has settled, meaning that for the next two months, NBA fans will be enthralled and encased in the yearly chaos and high-stakes war of attrition that is the postseason, the most wonderful time of the year.
For the Western Conference, the eight-team tournament is set, with the Memphis Grizzlies earning the eighth and final seed over the Golden State Warriors in a winner-take-all consolation game for the final seed during last night’s Play-In Tournament wrap-up, as Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, and crew sent the Dubs off in OT, finishing Stephen Curry’s Warriors to an earlier-than-usual off-season with a 117-112 road win.
And as that set up a much-anticipated first-round matchup between the Grizzlies and top-seeded Utah Jazz, and a somber reunion of two generations of Grizzlies basketball with the impending return of not only the Memphis Grizzlies in the postseason for the first time since the 2016-17 season, but the anticipated return of Mike Conley Jr. in the playoffs, but this time in a different jersey as his Jazz seek out championship aspirations in a historic year for the franchise. And the same can be said for the rest of the bloodbath-resembling West with one outlook.
We’ll get into each entertaining first-round series, give you the scoop on the most pertinent stats that’ll likely be the X-Factor in each series, and give you our predictions on how each series will turn out, with some outcomes being either more concrete than others.
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No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies (38-34) vs. No. 1 Utah Jazz (52-20)
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Utah won this season’s series against the Wizards 3-0 and every win against them this year has been, on average, won by a margin of 5.8 points. They’ve shown that, though they’ve had their battles with one another, it’s taken little difficulty to handle Memphis.
But, there’s a new ferocity, a new focus, and a newfound level of confidence in these growing Grizzlies, who enter their first postseason in four years and after out-lasting Stephen Curry’s offensive onslaught in the final Play-In Tournament, will be playing like anything but inexperienced underdogs, laying everything on the line with virtually nothing to lose.
The Grizzlies’ started out their season slowly of the gates with their 2-6 record, and due to their onset injury woes, looked like they were in for a long year before they started piling a slew of six straight wins even following a significant COVID-19 outbreak that forced them to adjust their schedule and postpone multiple weeks worth of games. Even worse, they stayed afloat but never really flourished due to the struggle of asserting a sense of chemistry with an ever-shifting starting five, made more abhorrent with Ja Morant’s ankle injury that sidelined him during a crucial stretch in the weeks of January.
Factor in the seeping reality of not having sharpshooting two-way big Jaren Jackson in the lineup for a majority of your season (left Meniscus rehabilitation) and those initial expectations of landing back into that play-in tournament spot would grow in credibility. Things started looking up after they survived against the Spurs in the first of two play-in games and then defeated the Warriors two nights later. To their credit, they’ve defied a bunch of sportsbook odds and qualified for the playoffs for the first time in nearly a half-decade.
So for their efforts, they’ll be awarded the Utah Jazz in the first round of the playoffs, the Western Conference’s No. 1 team, and the squad with the best record in the NBA.
But honestly, let’s just cut to the meat and potatoes here: the historical significance of this first-round matchup tells the story. Not only are the Grizzlies back into the playoff fray for the first time in four years, but they’ll do so against the team they traded Mike Conley Jr. to, who just so happens to be Memphis’s all-time franchise leader in total points. The acquisition of the second-overall pick in the 2019 Draft capitulated the philosophy of the Grit N’ Grind Era in Memphis being timeless, as father time finally laid its claws on the Grizzlies’ franchise following the year of 2017.
After Kawhi Leonard’s San Antonio Spurs sent Memphis home (the Grizzlies lost at home but, well, you get the saying), their ages and expiring contracts from the likes of Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley Jr. began to permeate the future they planned on investing in, and therefore in forthcoming years, older guys seemed new pastures and the rebuild began. It was until the 2017-18 season that saw them draft Jaren Jackson Jr. out of Michigan State with the third-overall selection and the 2018-19 season that allowed these Grizzlies to land the second-overall pick in Ja Morant out of Murray State…Mike Conley’s inevitable replacement.
Though Morant played under Conley’s wing, the Ohio State standout was shockingly dealt to the Utah Jazz last season in an effort to put the aging but highly-skilled Conley on a title-contending team. Now, it seems like that promise came into fruition, as Utah posted the league’s best record in such an abridged season.
This means that, after Games 1 and 2 inside Utah’s humble abode of Vivint Smart Home Arena, Games 3, 4, and possibly 6 should the series extend that far, will be some of the more somber moments in Grizzlies history, but a burgeoning reminder of not just what they’ve lost, but what they’ve gained in the new era of Grizzlies basketball.
On the surface, Utah looks like a run-and-gun, high-octane offense that will bullet down the court in transition and beat you in the open court with superstar guard Donovan Mitchell slashing and flashing down the court at high speeds, but they finished the 2020-21 season ranked 18th in the pace metric. In the halfcourt is where Utah shines, however, and it’s usually up to the league’s fifth-most efficient scorer in Mitchell to score on any matchup and help the league’s third-ranked offense win games.
The problem with this matchup for Memphis, however, is that even with some exceptional ball-stoppers in Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson and youth being on their side, Utah beats you in a variety of ways: both with the deep ball as the fourth-ranked offense from behind the three-line, and in the halfcourt as a balanced and purely-selfless “one-pass-away” offense. Quin Snyder’s offensive scheme is charioted by the efforts of Mitchell, who in himself is a 26 ppg. scorer off of fairly-efficient 43/39/85 splits.
Outside of the spectacular Morant, the slow-but effective shot creation of Kyle Anderson, the defensive tenacity of Dillon Brooks (who is going to be making all sorts of defensive gems this series), and Jaren Jackson Jr. occasionally having his moments, Utah has too much firepower to even be kept at bay by the Memphis’ league-wide 16th-ranked defense (in terms of points allowed).
And with a mainstay in the yearly Defensive Player of the Year voting, Rudy Gobert swatting shots and likely erasing the likes of the frontcourt tandem of Jackson, Jonas Valanciunas, and rookie Xavier Tillman during their seven-game series, it’s likely Utah walks into this series as heavy favorites and walks out of it largely unscathed, prepared to duel against their next opponent in the Western Conference Semifinals.
Prediction: Jazz beat Grizzlies 4-1.
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No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (42-30) vs. No. 2 Phoenix Suns (51-21)
Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns scores on a layup over Dennis Schroder #17 of the Los Angeles Lakers as LeBron James #23 and Markieff Morris #88 look on during the second quarter at Staples Center on March 02, 2021, in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
And so, the title defense, and the long quest for Banner No. 18, officially begins on Sunday, May 23, 2021. And yet, they will not get the grace of setting foot on their path to retention with either the West’s No. 1 or No. 2 seeds and instead will have to run the table as the seventh seed in this year’s postseason just to get a sniff of this year’s NBA Finals. And seeing as there has been a total of 11 years since LeBron James has failed to reach the Finals in one postseason, Phoenix will not have the luxury of the easy, typical 2-7 playoff starter of a series. Not by a long shot.
The Lakers have gone through their share of roster deficiencies and health issues as COVID-19 played an additional role in derailing what started out as an effort-less regular season atop the Western throne, which quickly turned into one of “I hope we can make a good trade and/or make the playoffs”, especially when Anthony Davis underwent his own recovery from Achilles Tendonosis. But as they sit in the seventh seed, they have to be salivating at the bit to square off against the Suns’ new trio of Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, and 38-year old wizard – not just Point Gawd – Chris Paul who just happens to turn whatever he touches into gold.
I mean, it’s absurd, rather unheard of to fathom just what Chris Paul has done in a matter of three seasons for three different franchises. Being a game (or a quarter, sorry Rockets fans) away from going to the NBA Finals in 2018-19, getting the Oklahoma City Thunder back into the playoff picture as a four-seed in a year they weren’t even supposed to make the playoffs last season, and this year, giving the Suns not only their first postseason berth in 11 years, but to help one of the youngest teams get the second-best record in the NBA in less than a year with them? There are few words to describe his impact and transcendence in this organization.
Phoenix had the season the Lakers wish they could’ve had, pending on health and luck not playing such a significant part on the new construction of the roster. At 51-21, these Suns are seeing the brightest days in the valley, posting the seventh-best defensive efficiency numbers in the league and the 6th best defensive rating in the NBA (110.4 DRtg). Also, Phoenix finished the regular season with the best home record in the league, mainly due in part to their Assist/turnover ratio of 2.15 leading the league, which was the second-highest mark in the last 44 seasons for which turnovers were counted as a statistic.
And as mentioned for the Lakers, they’ve been snakebitten by injuries all season, with none more so than when LeBron James suffered a high-ankle sprain at the tail-end of March. Los Angeles went a whopping 12-15 without LeBron on the year in total, including those losses down the stretch when he turned his ankle, as the Lakers’ offense was in disarray without their facilitating hybrid forward. But with him, they are 31-15 on the year.
But aside from AD and LBJ, the supporting cast of champions deserve recognition. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a knockdown shooter in the playoffs, Kyle Kuzma’s floor is elevated with AD and Bron’s presence on the court, Andre Drummond, their coveted pickup this season off of the buyout market, has led the league in defensive rebounding percentage, Marc Gasol could be the determining factor in the Lakers winning an NBA title as their most reliable option at the 5 as both a venerable defender and break starter, and Montrezl Harrell will inject energy into the offense and on the glass in the non-Gasol minutes.
And the biggest advantage for the Lakers? Neither AD nor LeBron played in the Suns and Lakers’ three matchups this year.
You have to envision a reality that, in order for Phoenix to survive these Lakers now that they’re 100% healthy, the core of Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, and CP3 have to play perfectly as holders of home court, and do the same away from it. One variable there is no controlling (if he is healthy) though…Playoff LeBron is here, and he’s ready to do damage. And respectfully, It’s difficult to envision the Suns having an answer for him other than just Mikal Bridges, as well as DeAndre Ayton on Anthony Davis.
Prediction: Lakers beat Suns 4-2.
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No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers (42-30) vs. No. 3 Denver Nuggets (47-25)
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
The Denver Nuggets, who when last met with the opportunity to make a splash in the playoffs successfully reached the Western Conference Finals a season ago, begin their 2020-21 postseason campaign noticeably depleted and handicapped. Jamal Murray has been out of action for nearly two months with a torn ACL and while MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic has kept Denver’s season intact like super glue, injuries to some important pieces like Will Barton (hamstring strain) and P.J. Dozier (adductor soreness) won’t be in action to start this series off against the healthy and increasingly-confident Portland Trail Blazers.
Thanks to the otherworldly efforts of Jokic year-round, and none more so than in the dates following Murray’s ACL tear, Nikola Jokic hasn’t allowed his Nuggets to falter down the stretch, thus attaining a top-3 seed in the West for the third year in a row.
While their offensive attack may have deteriorated, the continuous emergence of a certain Michael Porter Jr. (who is a 46.5 percent shooter off the catch from deep in only his second year in the pros) has sweetened what was such a souring turn of unfortunate events for the Nuggets as they prepare for what could be another long playoff run.
Denver started the season in a rather pedestrian manner at 17-15, but at that time, they were tied with the Suns for the best record in the NBA after ripping off an insane 30 wins in 40 games. And though you wouldn’t expect it with such a guard-heavy offense, they finished 2020-21 with the lowest number of Pick-And-Roll points per game, since a lot of Mike Malone’s offense primarily revolved around a bunch of split actions and a bunch of savvy passes out of the low block from Nikola Jokic.
And their most trusted five-man combination Malone feels comfortable running their sets the most to start out games involve Facundo Campazzo, Aaron Gordon, MPJ, Jokic, and Austin Rivers (side note: they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 10.8 points with just the trio of Gordon – Porter – Jokic sharing floor time).
This is a team that scores fast out of the gate, and indeed slowing that down will have to be a point of emphasis for Trail Blazers Head Coach Terry Stotts heading into this rematch of the 2019 Western Conference Semifinals that went into a conclusive seven games and saw CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard’s Blazers come out on top.
And speaking of these Blazers, this will be the eighth-straight season that Terry Stotts’ crew will have reached the playoffs – the longest streak of any team in the league. While Damian Lillard’s regular-season minutes per game became a topic of debate, Portland wouldn’t be here had it not been for him taking up a bigger role in lieu of the injury blows to their roster (Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum were out for what felt like two months) as Lillard finished up his 2020-21 regular season with the second-highest usage rate of his career at 31.4% and an averaged 35.8 minutes per game.
Now, in a regular playoff setting with travel and rest (or lack thereof) with a normal playoff schedule and not one that’s inside of a Disney World bubble, we’ll see if that really does affect Lillard heading into this postseason, though this isn’t the time to show fatigue, since this is where the real fun starts.
But looking at Portland’s offense, who in the regular season, (1) scored a league-leading 116.1 points per 100 possessions with the eighth-ranked offense in terms of points per game and, (2) finished the season posting the league’s second-best offensive rating, it’s likely they’ll have the extra-man advantage with all of their core being at 100% for a seven-game series and with Denver being down their true shot-creator in the halfcourt.
The playoffs showcase an entirely different brand of basketball and generally favors the teams who, schematically, are better at creating space with skilled ballhandlers with their own bag of dribble counters that, in turn, create an entire dynamic of offense that work to break down opposing defensive schemes and open the floor for others to get their open looks.
Portland quite literally have three of the best isolation scorers in the world with Damian Lillard (28.8 ppg., 4.2 rpg., 7.5 apg off 45/39/93 splits) CJ McCollum (23.1 ppg., 3.9 rpg., 4.7 apg. off 46/40/81 splits) and Carmelo Anthony off the bench (13.4 ppg., 2.6 rpg., 1.5 apg. off 42/41/89 splits), and present a bunch of mismatches for the Nuggets who will have their hands full in actively switching on ball screens when Lillard decides to get downhill (or pull from 30+ out), McCollum works in the 13-15-foot range, or Anthony operate on the wing against other versatile defenders.
And in a series like this, the game will always come down to a bucket, and while Jokic will pull off some amazing feats in this series, Portland simply has more playmakers with the ball in their hands. Should they not allow Denver to jump on them early during every game and on the other end, make their shots and involve Jokic in the PnR to rack up the fouls, this series will end in the Blazers’ favor.
Prediction: Trail Blazers beat Nuggets 4-2
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No. 5 Dallas Mavericks (42-30) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (47-25)
Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images
Rematch! Dallas said run it back, and so we will in round two of this first-round matchup that saw the Clippers win in six games during last year’s playoffs in the Orlando bubble.
And during last year’s thrilling series featuring Luka Doncic, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Kristaps Porzingis, we got one of the most thrilling and bone-chilling moments in postseason history via a game-winning Luka stepback three over Reggie Jackson during an untimely switch at the horn to give Dallas their first win of the series, and while last season’s duel between these two teams that have formed a bit of a rivalry over the course of a year (especially with the Mavericks giving the Clippers their worst loss in franchise history this past December – a 52-point scalping at the Staples Center) this will probably be a highly-competitive and physical series that could very well extend into six or seven games.
For the Clippers, this postseason is absolutely make-or-break, considering the contractual red flag of Kawhi’s possible departure if things don’t go LA’s way in these playoffs. This is a championship-contending team, make no mistake about it, but they are also as good as a first-or-second-round exit.
The Clippers are a team that’s enthralled with so many dynamics to their offense – an offense largely built around the two-way superstardom of both Leonard and Paul George who, since the 2014 season, hasn’t touched the Conference Finals and has been regarded as an “underachiever” in the playoffs. This year, however, with the opportunity to right a lot of wrongs this year as a sportsbook favorite to help his team not only get to the Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history (and break the curse) but advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in his career, George is probably the most explosive, consistent, and mentally prepared for what could be a career-altering two-month period should the other team from Los Angeles finally find success.
This is an elite offense, to put it shortly, as they ranked in the top-10 in offensive rating for the 10th-straight season and led the league in team total 3PT percentage at 41.1 percent – the fourth-highest in league history. The five-man combo of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris Sr., and Ivica Zubac were the go-home lineups for Head Coach Tyronn Lue, and as an active lineup, outscored opponents by an average of 18.8 points per 100 possessions, the second-best mark in the league this year.
Furthermore, even as a non-aggressive team that may grind for chances inside the restricted zone and get to the line but scored the 28th-most points in the paint this season, they posted the highest Free Throw percentage as a team in NBA history, making an average of nearly 84 percent of their FTAs.
Defensively is where things aren’t as cheeky for the Clippers, however, as they’ve allowed the league’s highest amount of buckets from pick and roll ballhandlers. And they allowed a little under 35 percent of their opponent’s attempts from inside the RZ fall per game, and they’re ranked fourth in the league in that metric.
That’s not the most endearing thing you want to hear while having to defend the Mavericks’ 13th-ranked offense and perhaps the most fluid PnR scorer in the game in Luka Doncic for an entire seven-game series. Get this: Doncic ranked No. 2 in the league in total pick-and-roll ball handler possessions per game, and in terms of how many times he’s scored or assisted running those straight-up sets, he’s ranked 10th among ballhandlers with 300+ possessions.
Dallas finished their 2020-21 season as the eighth-ranked offense in terms of offensive rating, and made sure to beat opponents this year after winning the first quarter and getting a double-digit lead. And as the leader of their offense, Doncic (27.7 ppg., 7.2 rpg., 8.6 apg. off 48/35/73 splits) is looking to advance past these pesky Clippers for the first time in his career.
And complimenting him in this offense would be the likes of Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Kristaps Porzingis, who all help Doncic beat their opponents by an average of 12.6 points per 100 possessions – that makes this the ninth-best lineup in basketball that’s played 200+ minutes together. And their rotation of guards is just as good. Jalen Brunson is having a career year from downtown, knocking down an insane 48 percent from three out of 25 attempts from the corners, while Tim Hardaway Jr. knocked down a solid 40.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes on the year.
There’s a lot of offensive talent on the floor for this series, so do expect high-octane excitement for what’s to be a barnburner of a series. But ultimately, the Mavericks are a relatively-young team who’s 22-year-old leader in Doncic is still entering his prime, even with all of the Triple-Doubles and legendary numbers that he’s put up in his first three years in the league. The Clippers are on a mission this year, and are in win-now mode. This series will probably go the distance with both teams (hopefully) staying healthy throughout, but the Clippers are too balanced and talented to get bounced in the first-round.
Prediction: Clippers beat Mavericks 4-3.
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