And just like that, the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs are over. We’re on to the second round and as the true playoff atmosphere returns with vaccinated fans re-entering stadiums to fill the capacity limit, business is picking up. Though the semifinals in the East started up on Saturday evening with the Bucks being manhandled by the Brooklyn Nets to fall behind 0-1 to the gargantuan Nets offense, we will officially be in the second level of the postseason as soon as the Nuggets and Suns tip-off on Monday evening. The Jazz and Clippers, who respectively handled their business in their first-round series, will clash in a high-stakes, stacked matchup to determine who gets the second berth in this year’s Western Conference Finals.
Source: CBS Sports
Both series feature the final four best teams left in the warzone that is the Western Conference, and result-wise and statistically, these teams have earned the right to continue their seasons and improve their odds of hoisting up the Larry O’Brien trophy at the end of the year.
And so, we’ll delve into these two matchups, who has the advantage, statistical accolades earned over the course of the season, and reveal the two likeliest favorites to play in this year’s conference finals with yet another postseason predictions and matchup breakdown.
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No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 1 Utah Jazz
Dec 17, 2020; Los Angeles, California, USA; LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) passes off between Utah Jazz forward Royce O’Neale (23) and center Rudy Gobert (27) during the first quarter at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
While the Utah Jazz won’t have the goal of reaching a perfect postseason record, they handled business by winning four straight games by an average of 11.3 points after losing Game 1 to the Memphis Grizzlies by three in shocking fashion. They found a way to score consistently and keep Dillon Brooks largely out of every other game in the series after he dropped a game-high 31 points.
What was that “adjustment”, you ask? Oh, just getting Donovan Mitchell back in the building and on the floor, which did enough to get Mike Conley Jr. enough space to create and attack bigs in the Pick and Roll and provide Rudy Gobert a litany of touches and a good ball handler to make screen assists for and mismatches for easy looks at the rim.
The Jazz portrayed themselves as the league’s third-most efficient offense that they’ve been all year, posting an otherworldly 124.6 offensive rating in the first round of the Western Playoffs, good for the second-best offensive rating (per 100 possessions) in this year’s playoffs.
And while it was Mitchell that looked every part of an MVP candidate averaging 26.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists off 47/40/94 splits through four games, Mike Conley Jr. winded back the hands of time with some scintillating road performances against the Grizzlies, his old franchise that he became their all-time scorer at. Conley averaged 17.4 points off 47/55/100 splits all series and in game three, the first of the series inside Conley’s old stomping grounds of the FedEx Forum, edged his Jazz over the top with a signature 27 points off 8-for-16 shooting for a 10-point win.
Grizzlies budding star Ja Morant did all he could, becoming the second-highest scorer in the history of the league in their playoff debut, but the Jazz’s team-wide ability to stretch the floor with nearly four to five perimeter scorers on the floor in nearly every Quin Snyder rotation, the team fixed their mishaps from Game one and didn’t look back, shooting a team-wide 35.7 percent from downtown as the NBA’s third-best three-point shooting team in the league during the regular season.
Which makes this matchup between the resilient and synergetic Jazz all the more exciting. Star power may be anemic, but the sense of all-around team ability is pungent between these two high-octane offenses. The Clippers finished the regular season as the best three-point shooting team in the NBA, percentage-wise, and while the Jazz hold a 2-1 season lead over the Clippers, two of the three games were decided by single digits, with the largest win against the Clippers being by 18 points back on February 17th in the Staples Center.
The playoffs are a different story, and these Clippers are grizzled, battle-tested, and hungrily on a mission to redeem their Conference semifinals woes that have hung over their heads like black clouds since their inception. Since 2015, the Clippers have appeared in two conference semifinals but still haven’t advanced to the Conference Finals in franchise history.
Kawhi Leonard reverted back to his 2019 ways and was a man amongst boys this series when it seemed like the deck was stacked against them, averaging around 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists off 61 percent shooting and put the team on his back in what would have been a consequential Game 6 loss had they folded in the fourth quarter.
Leonard assumed the position of the take-us-home Alpha Male, both scoring 45 points on 18-for-25 shooting and finally taking heed of the responsibility of shutting down Luka Doncic on the other end in crunch time. Better yet, he continued displaying the two-way dominance that fans were waiting on him to show with his new team by dropping 28 points off 10-for-15 shooting and doing the same to a fatigued Doncic in the fourth quarter of Game 7, manually completing the Clipper comeback when folks wrote off their season as soon as they fell behind 2-0 to the Mavericks and couldn’t win a home game in the series until Game 7.
So looking at the tale of the tape, there are a bunch of factors that will likely determine who wins, but none more important than these four: 1.) Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s creation of mismatches in the halfcourt, 2.) Three-point shooting for both teams, 3.) The productivity of Utah’s backcourt against the Clippers’ combination of physical, lengthy wings, and 4.) Rudy Gobert/Derrick Favors’ gravity and presence both rolling to the rim and on the interior against the Clippers’ frontcourt.
Utah’s second-most-efficient offense in the playoffs will have their hands full in trying to get to their spots against a Clippers team that loves to switch (maybe a little too much, after watching the first few games of the Clippers – Mavs series) and is intent on taking away driving angles as a Top-8 defense this season. But, as mentioned in our prior Western Conference playoff predictions, Utah could be licking at their chops in their intent on attacking the second-worst Pick and Roll-defending team in the NBA with two guards – not just Luka Doncic in a starting lineup – that run the halfcourt set ad nauseam.
Conversely, with the star power of both Leonard and George (who averaged 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists off 48 percent this series) as well as the balance of this roster, it won’t be easy for Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley to jumpstart the offense if space is air-tight for 48 minutes all series.
Prediction: Clippers beat Jazz 4-2.
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No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 2 Phoenix Suns
DeAndre Ayton #22 of the Phoenix Suns looks to pass around Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets during the NBA game at Phoenix Suns Arena on January 23, 2021, in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Tipping off at 10 p.m. ET on TNT tonight will be a much-anticipated duel between the third-seeded Denver Nuggets and the Chris Paul-led Phoenix Suns, who shocked the world by defeating LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers in six games during the Western Conference First Round. The Nuggets are also a team that defied expectations (certainly ours) by beating Damian Lillard’s Portland Trail Blazers by outlasting the scoring onslaught from the superstar backcourt of Lillard and CJ McCollum while Denver’s offense was largely carried by MVP favorite Nikola Jokic (33 points off 53/43/92 splits) and budding star Michael Porter Jr., who averaged 13.2 points off 49/39/78 splits in his second-ever postseason.
Denver has dominated the season series 2-1, with all three games being decided by an average of five points. Their biggest win was a four-point win on January 22 by a score of 130-126 as Nikola Jokic gave DeAndre Ayton the work, scoring a game-high 31 points with 10 rebounds and 8 assists. But, these teams played each other tightly, with two of the three games going into overtime this season.
We have yet to see a hiccup from these Nuggets with Jokic being the caboose of the Nuggets’ train that hasn’t really stopped since the early-April season-ending injury suffered by superstar guard Jamal Murray. They are playing a confident brand of ball, operating in a Michael Malone motion offense that’s diverse in touches and opportunities for players like third-year standout Monte Morris and longtime veteran Austin Rivers to step up in Murray’s absence.
As a team, the Nuggets were the sixth-best offense in basketball this season, posting a 116.3 offensive rating per 100 possessions while simultaneously being a respectable top-15 defensive team, only allowing 111.5 opponent points in the same metric. Now granted, that lacks some context with a group of players currently inactive impacting those statistical marks. But in the scale of the playoffs, the Nuggets are averaging a 122.9 offensive rating, which makes them the third-most efficient offense among the teams still left in the pool.
On the other end of the spectrum, however, the Nuggets are in the bottom quadrant of defensive teams as the 13th-ranked playoff team in points allowed – which doesn’t tell the full story considering their efforts in Game 5 of the series in which they allowed a ghastly 147 points in four quarters and two overtimes, and just couldn’t stop the heroics of Damian Lillard that day, who ended scoring a playoff career-high 55 points – as the Nuggets handled business in the second half of game 6 and kept Lillard virtually scoreless in the fourth quarter for a 1-11 shooting effort, which ended his season.
Additionally, the constant ball pressure from their backcourt combinations gave CJ McCollum troubles in alleviating some of the load from Lillard late down the stretch, and the cold streak became contagious for the entire team during their 126-115 loss, which could immediately start the rebuild of the Trail Blazers with Lillard possibly seeking playing time elsewhere in a winning market.
And as is the case for Denver, Phoenix was not highly touted as a 2 seed, ironically, against a banged-up Lakers team even with the implication of Playoff LeBron showing up at some point and wreaking havoc on the inexperienced Suns (who are the youngest team in the playoffs) who hadn’t seen a playoff series win, or playoff appearance, in eleven years.
But fate would have different plans for Devin Booker and Chris Paul’s Suns, who stormed out of the gates and won Game one convincingly. Here’s how it went, explained as briefly as possible:
Booker scored the most points in a playoff debut in NBA history and continued to further reveal his superstardom to the basketball universe, the second unit – most noticeably Cameron Payne, who averaged 12.5 points off of 42/42/100 splits in his third-ever playoff appearance – stepped up mightily when Chris Paul experienced sudden shoulder and nerve pains in the middle of Game 1, Monty Williams’ defensive schemes restricted a hampered and aging LeBron James to jumpers when the Suns went on runs, DeAndre Ayton kept Anthony Davis quiet for a majority of the series, and the Phoenix Suns did what hadn’t been done since the Steve Nash/Amare Stoudamire days: win a playoff series.
And because of that masterclass of a defensive effort against the NBA’s most efficient offense (per offensive rating), the Suns are the best defensive team in the Western playoffs so far with an insanely impressive 102.6 defensive rating. Offensively, they could be better as the 12th ranked offense left in the playoffs, but they certainly will embrace the challenge with quite arguably the most dangerous two-guard combination left in the Western playoff picture.
If the three regular-season duels told us anything about this series, it’s that it will be balanced, tightly contested, technical, and orchestrated by two exceptional on-ball operators and passers in Paul and Jokic.
Unfortunately, NBA fans will not have the luxury to enjoy two masterful isolation bucket getters in Booker and Murray face off against each other in a crucial playoff series as Denver will surely miss the special dynamic of having their three-level scorer bend defenses to his whim, but in his place will be the emerging Michael Porter Jr., who is growing in total skill set but will have to meet a now experienced Mikal Bridges that just got done matching up with LeBron James for six games. Ultimately, it’s going to be up to Jokic in creating offense for himself and others while surveying defenses from the low post and wing. Also, expect the Joker to be a constant pick and pop threat who can literally shoot over anyone if need be.
This series will come down to its stars performing when the lights are the brightest, but bench points and role players will always play the biggest part in determining who advances to the Western Conference Finals. Denver’s rotation of guards is also getting healthier and as players like Will Barton and PJ Dozier expect to re-join the team at some point this series, pieces like rookie Facundo Campazzo as well as veterans like Aaron Gordon and Paul Millsap are there to assist Jokic and these Nuggets on getting back to the Conference Finals, the place they finished their season off by losing in six to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers.
And even if Phoenix is having one of those “destiny” seasons with health on their side as well as Devin Booker playing the best ball of his career, it’s hard to deny Malone’s Nuggets, since Jokic has averaged 25.7 points against them in the three times he’s played Phoenix this year. The Nuggets have already been through the wringer of stopping an elite backcourt with a frontcourt compilation of Aaron Gordon and JaMychal Green off of switches, but have enough talent and experience to neutralize both Chris Paul and Devin Booker when the moment calls for it.
Prediction: Nuggets beat Suns 4-3.
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